Celtics vs. Pacers: Series Prediction, Betting Odds, Player Props

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And then there were four. After the conclusion of the second round on Sunday, the 2023-24 NBA Playoffs are officially down to the final four teams.

The Boston Celtics booked their spot in the Eastern Conference Finals with a 4-1 series win over a short-handed Cleveland Cavaliers team that was dealing with multiple injuries. It will be Boston's third consecutive trip to the ECF and their sixth in the last eight seasons.

The Indiana Pacers advanced to the ECF with a resilient 4-3 series win over a New York Knicks side that was also dealing with injuries. Indiana trailed 2-0 and 3-2 in the series but found a way to regroup both times, leading to a signature 130-109 Game 7 win at Madison Square Garden on Sunday. This is the Pacers first appearance in the ECF since 2013-14.

Now, the Celtics and Pacers will clash with a spot in the NBA Finals on the line. Boston is seeking a return to the finals after they came up short in 2021-22. Indiana is looking to return to the finals for the first time since 1990-2000.

Let's take a look at the Celtics-Pacers odds offered by FanDuel Sportsbook for this series, which begins with Game 1 in Boston on Tuesday, May 21st at 8:00 p.m. ET.

All NBA odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

Eastern Conference Finals Odds

Celtics vs. Pacers Betting Odds: Moneyline, Total Games, and Correct Score

Series Moneyline:
- Celtics: -1200
- Pacers: +680
Total Games:
- 4 (+250)
- 5 (+155)
- 6 (+310)
- 7 (+430)
Series Correct Score:
- Celtics 4-0 (+320)
- Celtics 4-1 (+155)
- Celtics 4-2 (+410)
- Celtics 4-3 (+500)
- Pacers 4-0 (+7500)
- Pacers 4-1 (+3800)
- Pacers 4-2 (+1400)
- Pacers 4-3 (+2200)
Correct Score After Three Games:
- Celtics 3-0 (+150)
- Celtics 2-1 (+100)
- Pacers 3-0 (+4000)
- Pacers 2-1 (+440)
Series Spread:
- Celtics -2.5 (-144)
- Pacers +2.5 (+118)

Celtics vs. Pacers Prediction

numberFire Prediction:
- Celtics To Make NBA Finals: 94.35%
- Pacers To Make NBA Finals: 5.65%
ESPN Prediction:
- Celtics To Make NBA Finals: 79.8%
- Pacers To Make NBA Finals: 20.2%
Opta Analyst Prediction:
- Celtics To Make NBA Finals: 85.5%
- Pacers To Make NBA Finals: 14.5%
Basketball-Reference Prediction:
- Celtics To Make NBA Finals: 90.1%
- Pacers To Make NBA Finals: 9.9%

Celtics vs. Pacers Player Props

Eastern Conference Finals MVP:

Celtics vs. Pacers Advanced Stats Breakdown

nERD via numberFire. Adjusted offensive/defensive ratings, pace, and shot distribution via DunksAndThrees.

Celtics:
- nERD: 80.8 (1st)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 122.0 (1st)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 111.2 (2nd)
- Pace: 97.7 (19th)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 41-36-5
- Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
  - Rim: 31.1% (26th) - 67.2% (4th)
  - Mid: 21.8% (1st) - 43.7% (15th)
  - 3PT: 47.1% (1st) - 38.8% (2nd)
Indiana Pacers:
- nERD: 56.3 (14th)
- Adjusted Offensive Rating: 120.1 (2nd)
- Adjusted Defensive Rating: 117.9 (24th)
- Pace: 102.1 (2nd)
- Against-the-Spread Record: 44-35-3
- Shot Distribution and Efficiency:
  - Rim: 37.2% (3rd) - 65.5% (7th)
  - Mid: 24.7% (7th) - 48.9% (1st)
  - 3PT: 38.0% (20th) - 37.4% (9th)

Celtics vs. Pacers Analysis

The Celtics enter this series as large favorites. For multiple reasons, it is easy to see why.

The Pacers' strength is their offense. They finished the regular season ranked second in adjusted offense rating (120.1). The only team that was better? The Celtics (122.0). Scoring is one area where Indiana almost always has the advantage over their opponents -- against Boston, that is not the case.

That problem is made larger by the massive difference in the two sides' defensive metrics. Indiana's high-scoring, high-pace game plan does not come with a sturdy defense. In the regular season, the Pacers ranked 24th in adjusted defense rating (117.9) while the Celtics ranked second (111.2).

Add it all up and the Celtics have a massive advantage in adjusted net rating -- +10.8 to +2.2.

Indiana's scoring has directly translated to the postseason. Their 114.2 points per game (PPG) in the playoffs ranks first while Boston's 108.1 PPG ranks sixth. Unfortunately for the Pacers, their defense has also carried over to the playoffs. They have allowed the fourth-most points per game (110.8) during the playoffs, and their defensive rating (118.1) ranks 13th. Boston has allowed the second-fewest points per game (96.7) and has the third-best defensive rating (106.1).

What Indiana does best, Boston does slightly better. What Indiana struggles at is a major strength for Boston. On paper, it is going to be a difficult obstacle to overcome for Indiana, and the multiple prediction models referenced above agree. The Celtics odds of advancing to the NBA Finals range from 79.8% (ESPN) to 94.35% (numberFire).

Adding to the Pacers' challenge is Boston's edge in experience. While it hasn't resulted in a championship -- yet -- Boston's collection of deep postseason runs has provided them with a wealth of experience in Eastern Conference Finals.

The Celtics won the regular season series between these two sides 3-2 -- but the most "important" game, a single-elimination clash in the NBA In-Season Tournament on December 4th, was won by the Pacers by a score of 122-112. In the regular season series, Boston had no issues scoring, averaging 129.0 points per game -- 8.4 points above their average. Indiana averaged 116.8 points per game, 6.5 points below their regular season average but 7.6 points above Boston's average points allowed per game.

The Celtics are deserving favorites, but Indiana's offense can certainly keep pace and force Boston into some uncomfortable situations. How Boston responds to those runs will be crucial. The Celtics need their defense to be the difference maker in this series.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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