Buccaneers at Cowboys Single-Game NFL DFS Picks for Sunday Night Football

While the Dallas Cowboys haven't had the season they were hoping for in 2024, they come into Week 16 having won three of their last four and could put up a fight at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs are 3.5-point road favorites in a matchup that features a high total.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Buccaneers at Cowboys NFL DFS Picks

MVP Candidates

Baker Mayfield ($14,500) and Mike Evans ($15,500) are fresh off eviscerating a normally stout Los Angeles Chargers defense in Week 15, scoring 29.0 and 35.4 FanDuel points, respectively.

Mayfield is the QB5 in fantasy this year, averaging 22.4 FanDuel points per game, and he boasts the slate's best score in our NFL DFS projections versus a defense that's given up the fourth-most FanDuel points per game to QBs. This matchup's 48.5 total is the highest of any Week 16 game, so it wouldn't be surprising to see Mayfield have another spike week in a potential shootout.

Of course, that means Evans could also have a ceiling performance, and he's been far and away the top option in Tampa's passing attack over the last three games, leading the team in target share (31.8%), air yards share (50.3%), and yards per route run (4.02). He's earned double-digit targets in two of those three weeks.

One other Bucs player to strongly consider at MVP is Bucky Irving ($12,500). While he's still in a split backfield and continues to work through a back/hip issue, Irving rattled off 113 scrimmage yards on just 15 carries and 2 targets last week, and we've seen him score 15-plus FanDuel points in six of the last nine games. Our model gives him a top-five projection in this game, and he could rack up the yards against a Dallas team that's 32nd in schedule-adjusted rush defense.

On the Cowboys, Cooper Rush ($12,000), CeeDee Lamb ($15,000), and Rico Dowdle ($13,000) all project for double-digit FanDuel points.

While it's admittedly hard to see Rush leading this matchup in scoring, Tampa Bay has coughed up the second-most FanDuel points per game to QBs, and Rush did just toss three touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers in Week 15. Rostering a contrarian MVP quarterback is never a bad thing in a single-game tournament, and Rush should be just that.

Lamb has battled through a shoulder issue for weeks, yet has still demonstrated he can hit a high ceiling with 18.4 and 25.1 FanDuel points over the last two weeks. Dallas has gotten back its full complement of pass catchers in that two-game sample, and CeeDee's usage has actually only gotten better with a 33.9% target share, 30.7% air yards share, 37.5% red zone target share, and 3.54 yards per route run.

Dowdle continues to dominate opportunities in Dallas' backfield, averaging 21.0 rushes, 2.0 targets, and 127.8 scrimmage yards over the last four games. He still cedes some red zone work (47.1% RZ rush share), but he could absolutely come through with an MVP-worthy score with some touchdown luck.

Flex Targets

Rachaad White ($11,000) -- While Bucky Irving typically flashes the higher ceiling in the Bucs' backfield, White is a pretty good bet to reach double-digit FanDuel points. He out-snapped Irving last week, but the two saw identical opportunities with each getting 15 rushes and 2 targets. Our projections forecast White reaching roughly 59 scrimmage yards, which falls in line with his rushing plus receiving yards prop line (65.5).

Jalen McMillan ($10,000) -- McMillan has finally broken out over the last two games with 19.9 and 16.0 FanDuel points. His role checks out over that span behind a 24.1% target share, 30.2% air yards share, and 50.0% end zone target share. Cade Otton is doubtful, further enhancing McMillan's outlook.

Brandin Cooks ($9,500) and Jake Ferguson ($8,000) -- With these two healthy over the last two games, Cooks has a 13.6% target share while Ferguson is at 16.9%. They're each projected for five-plus targets, making Ferguson the better value on paper, and his matchup checks out versus a defense that's given up the sixth-most FanDuel points per game to TEs. However, it's worth noting the tight end curiously hasn't seen a single end zone target all season and is stuck on zero touchdowns.

Brandon Aubrey ($9,000) and Chase McLaughlin ($9,000) -- Kickers tend to get left in the dust in high-scoring contests, but these two have been money in fantasy football. Aubrey has averaged 11.1 FanDuel points per game while McLaughlin has converted 92.6% of his field goals this year. If one offense pulls away, it's possible they bring their kicker along for the ride.

Sterling Shepard ($7,500) -- Shepard has a 17.8% target share and 23.5% red zone target share over the last four games. He might see a bump in targets with Otton expected out.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.