Broncos vs. Chiefs Prediction: 3 Best NFL Picks, Props for Monday Night Football

Broncos vs Chiefs Best Bets at a Glance

• Broncos Moneyline (+114)
• Under 43.5 (-108)
• Kenneth Walker III Anytime Touchdown (-120)

Monday Night Football brings us an AFC West showdown as the Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium.

With two teams that know each other extremely well, this matchup offers plenty of intriguing betting angles. Kansas City will look to take advantage of its home-field edge, while Denver has the talent on both sides of the ball to make this a competitive divisional battle.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best bets for this game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Broncos vs Chiefs Props, Prediction, Picks: Monday Night Football

Broncos Moneyline (+114)

The Denver Broncos to win is my favorite bet in this game. The Broncos are coming off a 2025 season in which they earned the AFC's No. 1 seed, and they were particularly effective in the underdog role. Denver went 5-0-1 against the spread as an underdog last season, while the Kansas City Chiefs finished just 6-11 against the spread overall.

The matchup is also difficult for a Kansas City offense that could need some time to get rolling. Patrick Mahomes is returning from the torn ACL that ended his 2025 season, and Denver allowed only 187.2 passing yards per game last year, the seventh-fewest in the NFL.

Arrowhead is obviously a difficult place to play, but I don't see much of a gap at all between these teams entering Week 1. With a low total (43.5) and tight spread suggesting a close game, I will back the underdog Broncos to get the win.

Under 43.5 (-108)

This sets up as a game where both defenses can make things difficult.

Kansas City games were especially friendly to the under last season, with only four of the Chiefs' 17 games going over the total. Denver wasn't exactly an over machine, either, as only seven of its 17 games cleared the total.

Mahomes' return adds another reason to lean toward a slower start for Kansas City's offense. He threw for 3,587 yards with 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions in 2025 before suffering the knee injury, and it wouldn't be surprising if Kansas City emphasizes Kenneth Walker III and the running game rather than asking Mahomes to immediately carry a high-volume passing attack.

Denver has enough offensive talent to move the football, especially after adding Jaylen Waddle, but Kansas City’s D gets the benefit of playing at Arrowhead.

All in all, I think both of these defenses win out.

Kenneth Walker III Anytime Touchdown (-120)

Kenneth Walker III is an appealing candidate to find the end zone in his first regular-season game with Kansas City.

Walker should immediately have the main role in the Chiefs' backfield after rushing for 1,027 yards and five touchdowns on 221 carries last season. Kansas City also appears intent on getting its new running back involved, with Mahomes recently praising Walker's versatility and ability to score from anywhere on the field.

Denver's run defense presents a difficult matchup after the Broncos surrendered just 91.1 rushing yards per game last season, but that doesn't necessarily scare me away from Walker in the touchdown market. Our model projects Walker for 0.67 rushing touchdowns and another 0.14 receiving touchdowns tonight.

That combination of expected workload and scoring equity makes Walker my favorite touchdown option on the Kansas City side. Even if Denver prevents him from piling up rushing yards, Walker should the Chiefs' primary rushing option when they get near the goal line, and his ability as a receiver gives him another avenue to cash this prop.

NFL Betting Frequently Asked Questions

What is an NFL point spread?

A point spread is designed to level the playing field between two teams. Favorites must win by more than the spread, while underdogs can either win outright or lose by fewer points than the spread.

What is an NFL moneyline bet?

A moneyline bet is simply picking which team will win the game. Favorites have negative odds, while underdogs have positive odds.

What are NFL player props?

Player prop bets focus on an individual player's performance, such as passing yards, rushing yards, receiving yards, touchdowns, or receptions, rather than the outcome of the game.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.