BMW Picks and Predictions: 3 Golf Best Bets for This Week

BMW Picks at a Glance

• Tommy Fleetwood Outright Winner (+2200)
• Hideki Matsuyama Top-10 Finish (+145)
• Alex Noren Top-20 Finish (-110)

The PGA Tour moves to the BMW Championship this week for the second stage of the FedEx Cup Playoffs.

Via the golf odds at FanDuel Sportsbook, which betting picks should be on your radar ahead of Thursday's opening round?

All golf odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.

BMW Best Bets, Picks and Predictions

Tommy Fleetwood to Win (+2200)

Fleetwood is my favorite outright bet this week.

Few players in the field have been as consistently strong from tee to green. Fleetwood ranks third on the PGA Tour in Strokes Gained: Total at 1.415 strokes per round, trailing only Scottie Scheffler and Matt Fitzpatrick.

His short game has also provided a major advantage. Fleetwood ranks second on Tour in scrambling at 66.67%, an important skill at a course where missing greens can quickly turn into bogeys.

The recent results back up the underlying numbers. Fleetwood finished T7 at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship and hasn't finished worse than 14th in any of his last seven starts.

He's also been excellent in this tournament regardless of venue, recording a top-11 finish in four of his last five BMW Championship appearances.

Scottie Scheffler deserves to be the favorite after winning by eight shots in Memphis, but with Scottie at +300, I’m looking for value elsewhere. Fleetwood offers an attractive combination of form, statistical strength and odds.

Hideki Matsuyama Top-10 Finish (+145)

Matsuyama comes into Bellerive having finished inside the top seven in each of his last four starts, including T7 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, as well as coming in the top 15 in six consecutive tournaments.

In short, Matsuyama is ending the season in superb form.

Bellerive should provide a good test for his strengths.

Matsuyama has historically been one of the best iron and short-game players on Tour, and he ranks sixth this season in proximity from 200 to 225 yards at 35 feet, 8 inches. Those longer approaches could become particularly important on a course measuring nearly 7,450 yards despite playing to a par of only 70.

His short game gives him another way to survive difficult stretches, and Matsuyama has already shown he can handle Bellerive. He closed with a 66 when the course hosted the 2018 PGA Championship.

Alex Noren Top-20 Finish (-110)

The biggest reason I’m into Noren this week is his current form.

Noren finished T18 at The Open, followed that up with a T7 at the Wyndham Championship and then finished T3 at last week's FedEx St. Jude Championship. That gives him three straight strong finishes entering the BMW Championship.

His putter also provides the ceiling needed to thrive at a limited-field event. Noren ranks among the PGA Tour leaders in Strokes Gained: Putting this season while improvements in his long game have made him much less reliant on putting.

That's an appealing combination at Bellerive.

With only 50 players in the field and no cut, Noren has all four rounds to climb the leaderboard, and his recent performance suggests the market may still be underrating how well he's playing. I don’t mind him to finish in the Top 10 at +320, either.

Golf Betting FAQ

What does it mean to bet on a golfer to win outright?

An outright winner bet — sometimes called a "to win" bet — is a wager on a specific golfer to finish first in the tournament. Because golf fields typically range from 70 to 156 players, winning outright is difficult, which is why odds for most players are expressed as large positive numbers (e.g., +1200 or +5000). A $100 wager on a +1200 golfer would return $1,200 in profit if that player wins.

What is a Top 5, Top 10, or Top 20 finish bet?

Finish position bets let you wager on a golfer to finish within a specified range on the final leaderboard, regardless of whether they win. A Top 10 bet pays out if the player finishes anywhere from first through 10th place. Odds are naturally shorter than outright markets to reflect the higher likelihood of success — a player might be +1200 to win but only +200 to finish Top 10.

How does a make/miss the cut bet work?

Most professional golf tournaments feature a 36-hole cut, trimming the field halfway through the tourney; the exact number of golfers who make the cut varies by event. A make/miss the cut bet is a simple two-way wager on whether a specific golfer will survive that cut and play the weekend.

What is a head-to-head matchup bet in golf?

A head-to-head matchup bet pairs two golfers against each other for the full tournament or for a single round, with the bet paying out based on which player finishes higher on the leaderboard.

What is a first-round leader bet?

A first-round leader bet is a wager on which golfer will post the lowest score in the first round (usually on Thursday). First-round leader bets tend to carry large odds given the size of the field and the variance of one-day results.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.