Best Bets and Predictions for Tonight's NASCAR Duels at Daytona

Tonight begins a stretch of four consecutive nights where we have cars (or trucks) on track, racing in packs and jockeying for trophies at Daytona.

Hallelujah.

The fun begins with the Duels at Daytona, which will set the starting order for Sunday's Daytona 500. The only two spots currently set are the front row, which will belong to Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric.

The Duels are a complex beast. On the one hand, it's a pack track, and anything can happen there, especially with the top 10 finishers receiving points. On the other, the incident rate here is much lower than in the 500 because drivers don't want to trash their primary cars for the race that matters. That's especially true for Briscoe and Cindric, who are racing just for points and not starting position.

After accounting for those factors, I've run my sims for each Duel to see who's most likely to come out on top. Here's what I've got for the first, and we'll run through the second after that.

(UPDATE: FanDuel Sportsbook has since posted NASCAR betting odds for the Duels at Daytona. I've edited the piece to include which drivers my model things are the best bets relative to those odds.)

NASCAR Duel 1 at Daytona Betting Picks

Kyle Busch (+650 to win at FanDuel Sportsbook) and Chase Elliott (+950) will start on the fourth row (seventh and eighth, respectively), but I do agree with the model being bullish on them.

First, Briscoe may choose -- at some point -- to duck out of the pack in order to avoid calamity and maintain his pole position.

Second, a lot of the guys in front of them are either non-elite pack racers or in middling equipment. Both Busch and Elliott are proven winners on pack tracks.

Elliott has won 2 of 9 (22.2%) career Duel races, and he has finished top 5 in 4 straight. Busch is a 3-time winner across 20 cracks (15.0%) and led 28 laps two years ago. To me, they're the deserving favorites.

Ross Chastain (+1900) will start 19th, giving him a tough path to 8.5% win odds. But overall, this Duel is a good amount weaker than the other, and Chastain could have won last year's 500. It's possible the model is too high on him, given he hasn't pushed it all that hard in past Duels, but the lack of strength in the field pushes him up the board.

You may not want to bet all three of Busch, Elliott, and Chastain, given two of those three bets are guaranteed to lose. But those are my three favorites, with Busch and Elliott getting the nod above Chastain.

NASCAR Duel 2 at Daytona Betting Picks

As alluded to, this Duel is much tougher. Five of my model's six favorites to win the 500 are here, crowding things up at the top.

This makes Joey Logano's 16.0% win odds even more impressive. He's there because of how the model views him overall but also because he's starting second. Cindric may prioritize pushing his Penske teammates rather than gunning for the win himself, and with Ryan Blaney starting 10th, Logano's the most likely guy to benefit. I adore him at +750 to win this one.

Chris Buescher (+1300) is the other bet I like here. Buescher won his Duel in 2022, and my model is high on him for the 500. I've got him at 9.2%, well above his 7.1% implied odds.

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Which bets stand out to you for Sunday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.