Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Daytona 500

Transitioning from betting other sports to betting NASCAR can be a little jarring.

In the NFL, you're typically laying -110 on a side or total. Same thing when you're betting things such as NBA player props.

In NASCAR, we sometimes have to be comfortable betting longshots in order to find value. That's especially true for the Daytona 500.

It's a wide-open race where most cars in the field have at least some hope of a win. That's why nobody is shorter than +1100 to win in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

My model's even more pessimistic than that, putting every driver's win odds at 6.1% or lower. Thus, we're going to have to come out of the gates swinging.

Luckily, I do see solid value in some of those longshots. The odds these bets win are low, and we should bet accordingly, but they're still good bets -- in my eyes -- with where the markets stand.

Let's see what stands out before cars hit the track Wednesday for qualifying.

Daytona 500 NASCAR Betting Picks

Chris Buescher to Win (+2400)

Chris Buescher already has a Daytona win on his ledger, capturing the flag here in the summer 2023 race. His overall body of work on pack tracks is impressive enough for me to back him at a forgiving number.

Even before the win, Buescher was strong at this track. He has 5 top-5s in 18 races, a rate of 27.8%. That's the fifth best rate of any active driver at the track. His 44.4% top-10 rate is the best of that group.

This strength has been there during the Next-Gen era (since the start of the 2022 season), as well. He finished fourth in the 2023 Daytona 500 and was third in Talladega (another pack track) that year.

My model has Buescher at 5.0% to win, up from his implied odds of 4.0%. If my model's right, this bet loses 95% of the time, but I think this is one of the better bets available right now.

Austin Cindric to Win (+2800); Cindric to Finish Top 5 (+360)

Although we ran through Buescher first, Austin Cindric is the most undervalued driver in the field, according to my numbers.

Cindric -- like Buescher -- already has a win here. He did that in the 2022 500, his first race as a full-time Cup Series driver. He was third in the summer race that year, as well.

With Cindric, you know he'll always be in contention. In 18 Next-Gen pack races, he has had a top-10 average running position 8 times. He did this in four of six races last year, and his worst average running position was 12th.

There's a big difference between running up front and finishing there, but Cindric has proven he has the chops to capitalize. In addition to the 500 win, he has four other top-fives across those 18 pack races. In the Xfinity Series (NASCAR's equivalent of a Triple-A), Cindric won at Daytona in 2021, too.

My model has Cindric among the favorites -- alongside his Penske teammates Ryan Blaney and Joey Logano -- at 6.0% to win. That's well clear of his implied odds of 3.5%, making him my preferred outright.

I've also got value on his top-five market as the model puts him at 24.5% there, up from 21.7% implied. That's the one non-longshot bet I'm willing to fire on as things stand.

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Which bets stand out to you for Sunday? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.