Best MLB Daily Dinger Pick May 22, 2026: Alec Burleson Home Run Prop Bet Prediction

Daily Dinger Home Run Pick

• Alec Burleson (+340): In his preferred split at a homer-happy park

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For today, who should you pick to hit a home run?

MLB odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and may change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Daily Dinger Home Run Pick Today for FanDuel

Alec Burleson to Hit a Home Run (+340)

Cardinals at Reds, 6:41 p.m. ET

Alec Burleson gets a park-factor lift today at Great American Ball Park, and he's got a friendly matchup versus Chris Paddack.

Released by Miami earlier this season, Paddack has some ugly numbers -- including a 16.9% strikeout rate and 4.56 SIERA -- since the start of the 2025 season. He's let up a 43.3% fly-ball rate in that span, and his new homer-friendly park in Cincy is not a good spot for a fly-ball pitcher.

Burleson is killing it with the platoon advantage this season, hammering RHPs to the tune of a .410 wOBA. He's hit seven homers this year, six of which have some against righties.

To make things even better, the Cincinnati Reds' bullpen is third-worst in reliever xFIP, so Burleson should have quality matchups all game.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does +210 mean on an MLB home run prop bet?

A +210 line means a $100 bet returns $210 in profit if the player homers. You can bet any amount — a $10 bet at +210 returns $21 in profit. The number reflects the implied probability the sportsbook assigns to the event (roughly 32% for +210 odds).

What happens to my FanDuel HR prop if the player doesn't start?

FanDuel's policy is that a HR prop bet will not be voided if the player records at least one at-bat — even as a pinch hitter. If they don't get any at-bat, the bet is typically voided. Always check FanDuel's official terms before placing your wager.

Can I parlay home run props together on FanDuel?

Yes. FanDuel allows you to parlay multiple HR props as a standard parlay or as part of a Same Game Parlay (SGP) within a single game. All legs must win for the parlay to pay out.

What factors matter most when betting MLB home run props?

Some of the most important factors are: the hitter's recent HR rate and raw power profile, the opposing pitcher's home run rate allowed, ballpark dimensions and park factors, wind direction and game-time temperature, and batter-vs-pitcher handedness splits.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.