Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Iowa Corn 350

Last week, Bubba Wallace turned up the heat on the NASCAR Cup Series playoff race bubble.

By winning the Brickyard 400, Wallace locked himself into the playoffs. That pushed Alex Bowman and Chris Buescher into the final two spots on points, leaving both in shaky situations should another new driver reach victory lane across the next four races.

I think at least one of them can respond this week in the Iowa Corn 350, if not with a win, at least a good run.

Let's dig into what my model's sims are saying about Iowa before practice and qualifying, and then we can dig into some values I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

NOTE: The sims have been updated with practice and qualifying data.

NASCAR Predictions for Iowa

NASCAR Betting Picks for Iowa

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+800)

(UPDATE: Bowman has since shortened to +500 to finish top 5. I'm at nearly the same place on him post-qualifying as I was pre-, so he is still a value at this new number.)

I've got good value on Bowman to win at +5000, so I don't mind if you go that route. You could also take him top 10 at +240. To me, the top-five market is a good blend of upside with immense value.

I've got Bowman at 21.0% to finish top 5, nearly double the 11.1% implied odds. That huge gap could imply I'm overrating Bowman, but I do think some poor finishes are throwing the market off.

Bowman has finished 35th or worse five times this year, several of which have come at tracks I'd consider quasi-comps to Iowa. Some of those are his fault, too.

But things such as crashes and equipment failures can often be fluky, and they don't show a driver's true pace. Instead, we can look at what Bowman has done when things have gone well and see he just finished third at Dover -- another short-ish track -- just two weeks ago. He was also seventh in Phoenix back in the spring.

Bowman finished eighth in Iowa last year, so he knows how to get around the track. I don't see anything in the data that says he should be viewed as unfavorably as how the betting odds have him now.

Ty Gibbs to Finish Top 5 (+700)

(UPDATE: Gibbs has since shortened to +600 to finish top 5. However, due to Gibbs' middling speed on Saturday, I no longer show value on him at the shortened number.)

Fresh off his $1 million prize last week, I think Ty Gibbs can churn out another quality run on Sunday.

Gibbs' best upside (outside of road courses) has come on shorter tracks this year. He finished fifth in Dover and was third in Bristol, both of which are faster than you'd think based on their size, similar to Iowa. That makes them relevant tracks for me this week.

Gibbs -- and most of the Toyotas -- struggled in Iowa last year as he finished 25th after starting 27th. Thus, there is risk here. But now that they've got a year's worth of data, I'm comfortable expecting a better showing this time around.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+1100)

(UPDATE: Smith has since shortened to +950 to finish top 10. He is no longer a value for me at that number.)

I've been in on Zane Smith quite a bit this year, often to no avail. Some of that is poor luck, though, so I don't want to abandon ship just yet.

Each of the past two weeks, Smith has been at least respectable until getting caught up in someone else's incident late in the race. He wasn't tracking toward a top-10 finish in either, but it took away his chance to have variance break his way.

Smith did have speed at both Nashville and Phoenix earlier in the year, finishing 13th and 9th, respectively, in those two. Both tracks have similar banking to Iowa, tossing them into the quasi-comp bucket.

Basically, Smith has been competitive on relevant tracks this year, and this number implies otherwise. Even if it'd require some chaos for him to cash, I still think this is a worthwhile bet at current odds.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 5 (+550)

Wallace is similar to Bowman where I've got value on him across the board. I like the top-five market most.

Wallace has had good speed on shorter tracks this year. He had one of the best cars in Martinsville, rallied from a speeding penalty to finish sixth in Nashville, and was seventh in Dover. He had top-five runs at Martinsville, Richmond, and Bristol last year, too, so this isn't just a 2025 surge.

Wallace had good speed Saturday, sitting 10th and 11th in my model's 10- and 20-lap practice splits (which include group speed adjustments) before qualifying 15th. He won't have to make up a ton of ground to be at the front.

Wallace has plentiful experience at this track, having run it three times in the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series and six times in Xfinity (including his series debut). He had a 14th-place average running position in last year's Cup race, and with his improved form, that's good enough for me to bite.

Post-Qualifying Addition: AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+500)

AJ Allmendinger had great speed in practice and qualifying Saturday, and we can still get him at relatively long odds for a top-10. Sign me up.

Allmendinger will start ninth, highest of any driver in Group A for qualifying. He was also ninth and fourth, respectively, in my model's 10- and 20-lap practice ratings.

Iowa was unkind to Dinger last year as he wrecked in both the Xfinity and Cup Series races. But it is the type of track that should suit him as -- outside of road courses -- shorter tracks have been one of his best track types. He was ninth in Bristol earlier this year and 11th in Nashville last year.

After adding in Saturday's data, I have Dinger at 21.3% to finish top 10, up from 16.7% implied.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Erik Jones to Finish Top 10 (+950)

Like Allmendinger, Erik Jones was in Group A for qualifying, and he'll start back in 25th as a result. The practice speed was there, though, and I think we should buy in.

Jones was great on the long run, sitting 6th in my model's ranking for 20-lap splits. He was also 13th in the 10-lap segment, which isn't too shabby, either.

This comes a few weeks after Jones finished seventh in Nashville with a ninth-place average running position. As mentioned above, Nashville and Iowa have similar banking and a similar track shape, so that does matter for me.

Legacy Motor Club's surge has mostly happened on faster tracks, but we also haven't seen a ton of shorter tracks on the schedule recently. If they've unlocked extra pace, that should translate to Iowa, as well. With my model putting Jones' top-10 odds at 15.3%, I'm willing to put stock in that ascending form and bet him at +950.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.