Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Iowa Corn 350

Last week, Bubba Wallace turned up the heat on the NASCAR Cup Series playoff race bubble.

By winning the Brickyard 400, Wallace locked himself into the playoffs. That pushed Alex Bowman and Chris Buescher into the final two spots on points, leaving both in shaky situations should another new driver reach victory lane across the next four races.

I think at least one of them can respond this week in the Iowa Corn 350, if not with a win, at least a good run.

Let's dig into what my model's sims are saying about Iowa before practice and qualifying, and then we can dig into some values I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

NASCAR Predictions for Iowa

NASCAR Betting Picks for Iowa

Alex Bowman to Finish Top 5 (+800)

I've got good value on Bowman to win at +5000, so I don't mind if you go that route. You could also take him top 10 at +240. To me, the top-five market is a good blend of upside with immense value.

I've got Bowman at 21.0% to finish top 5, nearly double the 11.1% implied odds. That huge gap could imply I'm overrating Bowman, but I do think some poor finishes are throwing the market off.

Bowman has finished 35th or worse five times this year, several of which have come at tracks I'd consider quasi-comps to Iowa. Some of those are his fault, too.

But things such as crashes and equipment failures can often be fluky, and they don't show a driver's true pace. Instead, we can look at what Bowman has done when things have gone well and see he just finished third at Dover -- another short-ish track -- just two weeks ago. He was also seventh in Phoenix back in the spring.

Bowman finished eighth in Iowa last year, so he knows how to get around the track. I don't see anything in the data that says he should be viewed as unfavorably as how the betting odds have him now.

Ty Gibbs to Finish Top 5 (+700)

Fresh off his $1 million prize last week, I think Ty Gibbs can churn out another quality run on Sunday.

Gibbs' best upside (outside of road courses) has come on shorter tracks this year. He finished fifth in Dover and was third in Bristol, both of which are faster than you'd think based on their size, similar to Iowa. That makes them relevant tracks for me this week.

Gibbs -- and most of the Toyotas -- struggled in Iowa last year as he finished 25th after starting 27th. Thus, there is risk here. But now that they've got a year's worth of data, I'm comfortable expecting a better showing this time around.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 10 (+1100)

I've been in on Zane Smith quite a bit this year, often to no avail. Some of that is poor luck, though, so I don't want to abandon ship just yet.

Each of the past two weeks, Smith has been at least respectable until getting caught up in someone else's incident late in the race. He wasn't tracking toward a top-10 finish in either, but it took away his chance to have variance break his way.

Smith did have speed at both Nashville and Phoenix earlier in the year, finishing 13th and 9th, respectively, in those two. Both tracks have similar banking to Iowa, tossing them into the quasi-comp bucket.

Basically, Smith has been competitive on relevant tracks this year, and this number implies otherwise. Even if it'd require some chaos for him to cash, I still think this is a worthwhile bet at current odds.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.