Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 in Daytona

If you're hunting for a playoff berth in the NASCAR Cup Series, you've got one last chance.

After Austin Dillon's win in Richmond, there are just two spots available on points as things stand. That number could decrease to one if we have a new winner, which would bump either Tyler Reddick or Alex Bowman out.

My model says we have a 45.0% chance of having a new winner Saturday night who is playoff-eligible. The tongues are gonna wag, and if you're on the bubble, it's time to start sweating.

To make it even spicier? One of my model's best values in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds is a guy currently projected to miss the playoffs. I'm willing to bet him outright.

Let's start with the simulations, and then we can dig into which bets I like for the regular season finale.

NASCAR Predictions for Daytona

NASCAR Betting Picks for Daytona

Chris Buescher to Win (+2000)

Chris Buescher is the guy who got bumped due to Dillon's win last week. He has proven, though, that he can still rally back at this track.

Buescher won the regular-season finale at Daytona in 2023, his breakout campaign. It's 1 of 5 career top-5 finishes in 19 Daytona races, 2 of which came before he joined what is now RFK Racing. In seven Next Gen races at Daytona, Buescher has that win, two top-5s, and four top-10s, that latter number being tied for first among all drivers in this span.

Buescher won't be getting team support here as the other two RFK cars -- Brad Keselowski and Ryan Preece -- are also in must-win situations. But we know Buescher will go for it, so I've got him at 5.3% to win, up from 4.8% implied.

Todd Gilliland to Finish Top 5 (+1000)

Todd Gilliland is the posterboy of "Run good, finish bad" on pack tracks. That could mean he just can't seal the deal. I think it moreso implies he's due for regression, putting me in his corner.

Gilliland has run 22 pack races as a full-time Cup driver, and he's yet to finish better than seventh. Yet, across that sample, he has had a top-20 average running position a whopping 16 times, 9 of which were top-15 marks.

At Daytona, specifically, Gilliland has finished just two of seven races, most of the DNFs due to crashes. Still, a lot of that is bad luck, and Gilliland has shown upside. That's why my model has him at 13.7% to finish top 5, up from 9.1% implied.

Zane Smith to Finish Top 5 (+1300)

Gilliland's teammate, Zane Smith, has a much better "make it to the finish" track record. He has finished three of four Cup races at Daytona, and he finished exactly 13th in all of them. That's not a huge surprise based on his output prior to Cup.

Smith won the NASCAR Craftsman Truck Series opener at Daytona in both 2022 and 2023. It's likely why he earned a part-time gig with Front Row Motorsports in Cup in 2023.

Since rejoining Front Row this year, Smith's pack pace has been solid. After a crash in Daytona, he has finished 11th, 19th, and 7th with a pair of top-13 average running positions in the latter two races. This team's superspeedway package is legit, and Smith is putting it to good use.

Smith's a slight value to win for me at +6500 as I have him at 1.8%. I'd rather take the more forgiving route, though, with the model putting him at 10.8% for a top 5.

Riley Herbst to Finish Top 5 (+1600)

Sticking with the "guys-who-previously-had-part-time-rides-with-Front-Row" trend, lets talk Riley Herbst.

That part-time schedule for Herbst came in 2023 and 2024 with both Front Row and Rick Ware Racing. In five races, he had a pair of top-10 finishes, one of which came here at Daytona.

Herbst got those looks because he generally ran well in the draft in the Xfinity Series. In 17 races from 2022 to 2024 there, he had 6 top-5s with 2 more finishes of exactly 6th. Despite being someone who crashes a bunch generally, he managed to keep his nose relatively clean down there.

In his first full Cup season this year, Herbst has finished 17th twice on pack tracks with a pair of top-20 average running positions. It's certainly not elite, but he's with a good team, and he has proven he has drafting skills. The market has him priced like a backmarker, and he's very much not that, so I'll take the upside swing at +1600 for a top 5.

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Which drivers stand out to you for Saturday's race? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NASCAR betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.