2 Best MLB NRFI Bets on Thursday 8/21/25

The MLB season is an annual marathon that gives us months of daily betting markets to consider.

While traditional player props like home runs and strikeouts remain popular options, one market that's gained steam is betting whether or not no runs will be scored in the first inning -- aka a No Run First Inning (NRFI) bet.

On FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB odds, we can find NRFI odds listed as 1st Inning Over/Under 0.5 Runs odds under each MLB game.

Where can we find value in this unique prop market today?

Please note: lines and projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.

NRFI Betting Picks for Today

San Francisco Giants at San Diego Padres

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-125)

Thursday's San Francisco Giants-San Diego Padres matchup has one of the day's lowest totals (7.5), which is a promising sign that we can get a NRFI from starters Justin Verlander and Dylan Cease.

Cease has had an up-and-down season, but he's been at his best the first time through the order, sporting a 3.09 xFIP, 32.9% strikeout rate, and 8.0% walk rate. That's helped him to a 3.07 ERA in that sample, and with that has come a NRFI in 18 of 25 starts.

The Giants' lineup has come alive in the first inning lately, but they're still just 17th in YRFI rate (28.4%) this year, so we should still have faith in Cease, particularly at home in pitcher-friendly Petco Park.

Despite not dominating like he used to, Verlander has logged a NRFI in 17 of 21 starts. His 3.96 xFIP and 24.9% strikeout rate the first time through the order is a significant step up from the 5.00 xFIP and 17.2% strikeout rate he otherwise shows the second and third time through.

San Diego has an even lower YRFI rate (26.8%) than San Francisco, ranking only 21st in the category.

Houston Astros at Baltimore Orioles

Under 1st Inning 0.5 Runs (-104)

We don't exactly have a pair of household names taking the mound in this one, but there could be value in taking a shot on a NRFI from Jason Alexander and Brandon Young at these appealing odds.

While Young has an unsettling 5.67 ERA across 11 starts, his 4.23 xERA is far less egregious, and he's fresh off holding these same Houston Astros zero runs and one hit over eight innings last week. Facing the same lineup in back-to-back starts will make it tough for Young to duplicate that success, but we're only looking for a scoreless first inning from him, and he's managed that in 8 of his 11 outings.

The right-hander's recent performance against Houston may not have been entirely a fluke, either. The Astros possess a righty-heavy lineup, and Young has produced a 3.54 xFIP, 24.5% strikeout rate, and 5.3% in same-handed matchups this season. Houston has also been a plus matchup for NRFIs in general, sitting 27th in YRFI rate (25.2%).

Alexander is also facing in the same lineup in two straight starts, but he performed well versus the Baltimore Orioles, which included a scoreless opening frame. In fact, since joining the rotation this summer, Alexander has been a perfect 6-for-6 in NRFIs. He's backed that up with a 3.38 xFIP and 25.9% K rate the first time through the order, as well. The Orioles have also typically struggled to score runs in the first inning, ranking 26th in YRFI rate (25.4%).

The wind will be blowing in at around 10 mph at Camden Yards, which could give a slight boost to pitching, too.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.