Best NASCAR Cup Series Bets and Predictions for the Brickyard 400 at Indianapolis

We're officially in "If it ain't broke" territory with the NASCAR Cup Series.

Last week, my model showed value in Denny Hamlin and William Byron even at short odds, so we decided to bet 'em both.

Hamlin went on to win the race.

This week, we're running it back.

Those two are once again tops in my model by a decent margin, and both are values in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds for the Brickyard 400 in Indianapolis. Even though it's a very different track from Dover, overall form is king, and these two are hard to top there.

Let's start by laying out my model's pre-practice sims for the race. Then, we can dig into the rationale behind both Hamlin and Byron. We can circle back later in the week once non-outrights are posted to add to the card.

(NOTE: The sims have since been updated after qualifying.)

NASCAR Predictions for Indianapolis

NASCAR Betting Picks for Indianapolis

Denny Hamlin to Win (+440)

(UPDATE: Hamlin has since lengthened to +750 to win as he will start at the rear of the field. Hamlin wrecked in qualifying, so he will be in a backup car. I still show value on Hamlin at +750, but it's thin, and the risk tied to a backup car makes it where I wouldn't want to bet him at that number.)

Outside of a championship, this is the one crown jewel Hamlin doesn't have. I wouldn't be shocked if that changed on Sunday.

Hamlin has excelled on the big, fast tracks this year. He won Michigan and finished runner-up in Pocono, and he could have won that race, as well. His average running positions were sixth and fourth, respectively.

Hamlin's lack of wins at Indy isn't due to a lack of form. He won the opening stage here last year and was third in the second stage. He just got caught up in a crash late while trying to claw his way through traffic. The previous time they ran the oval -- back in 2020 -- Hamlin wrecked while leading with only a few laps left. It's a good track for him even if he hasn't won.

Due to that and Hamlin's form, my model has him the highest it has had any driver on an oval this year. It's possible I'm too high on him, but I do think it's fair to say he's more likely to win this race than his 18.5% implied odds would indicate.

William Byron to Win (+1000)

(UPDATE: Byron has since shortened to +450 to win. He was fast in practice and qualified well while a lot of other key contenders struggled. Thus, I'm still showing good value on Byron even at the new number.)

The reason Hamlin won Michigan is because Byron ran out of gas late, one of several near misses for Byron in a stellar season.

Byron has led more than 25% of the laps in four races this season. He has won zero of those, and he hasn't been to victory lane since the Daytona 500.

Typically, that indicates a driver is due for positive regression. I believe that's what we're seeing with Byron.

Byron has had top-five average running positions in Charlotte, Nashville, and Michigan recently with no wins to show for it. Eventually, that speed is going to translate to a victory. I think Indy's a good spot for him to finally see a finish that reflects his speed.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Erik Jones to Finish Top 5 (+500); Jones to Finish Top 10 (+145)

I've got huge value on Erik Jones across the board, so even while these numbers may feel short for him, I want to dive in.

Jones was high in my model entering the weekend, and then he blew past those lofty expectations on Saturday. He ranked top three in both the 5- and 10-lap splits of my model's practice ratings, and he qualified third. Blistering.

Jones has been at his best at the high-speed tracks this year. He finished fifth in Texas and was top-13 in both Michigan and Pocono. This team -- back in its Richard Petty Motorsports days -- always seemed to have a knack for the big, fast tracks, and it seems like that's still the case.

If you didn't bet Byron and Hamlin pre-practice and have room on your outright card, I like Jones to win at +3400. But for our purposes, we'll split our bet up, putting the largest chunk on Jones to finish top 10 with an extra sprinkle on the top 5 in case he spikes his ceiling.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Carson Hocevar to Finish Top 5 (+400)

With how fast Carson Hocevar has been, I'm delighted to have value in him for Indy.

Hocevar had fast cars in both Michigan and Pocono but had nothing to show for it. He had a top-10 average running position in each race but finished outside the top 15 due to one issue or another. The speed is firmly there.

Hocevar showed he can convert that speed into a finish in Nashville, too, as he was runner-up to Ryan Blaney. The poor finishes are allowing us to still buy into Hocevar in upside markets without paying a premium, and I'd like to take advantage. Like Jones, he had speed in both practice and qualifying, so count me in on the Hocevar thrill ride this week.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Austin Cindric to Finish Top 5 (+360)

Austin Cindric checks the same boxes as Jones and Hocevar: the model was high on them entering the week, and they validated that faith on Saturday.

Cindric was 5th and 6th in my model's 5- and 10-lap splits, respectively. He qualified 10th, meaning he'll have easy access to the front.

Cindric is another driver who has had big speed on the fastest tracks this year. He had a top-13 average running position in Vegas, Texas, Nashville, and Pocono, and he churned out top-10 finishes in both Vegas and Pocono.

Last year at Indy, Cindric finished seventh. This track is an interesting one for Cindric, given his team owner owns the track and his father got fired from Team Penske's IndyCar team due to rules violations in the lead-up to the Indy 500. We'll see if the younger Cindric can get a better taste in his mouth via a good finish on Sunday.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.