Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Straight Talk Wireless 400 in Homestead

In 2025, the NASCAR Cup Series doesn't get much better than Homestead.

Not only is it a 1.5-mile track -- where the Next-Gen cars have provided elite racing -- but it's the track in that subgroup that chews up tires most. This puts more control in the drivers' hands, allowing the cream to rise to the top.

You see that reflected in the betting markets. Four drivers have odds of +850 or shorter in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds, and three more are +1300 or shorter. Based on my sims, none of them are all that egregiously priced, either. They suck up a lot of helium.

Still, I think the best value lies a bit lower on the board. First, we'll take a look at my model's pre-practice simulations, and then we'll lay out my favorite early-week bets at FanDuel Sportsbook.

UPDATE: The simulations below have been updated post-qualifying.

NASCAR in Homestead Predictions

Betting Picks for NASCAR in Homestead

Brad Keselowski to Finish Top 5 (+650)

(UPDATE: Keselowski has since shortened to +600. After adding in qualifying and practice data, Keselowski is no longer a value at that number.)

Since his move to RFK Racing, Brad Keselowski has been at his best at tracks with tons of tire falloff. It doesn't feel like the market's accounting for this just yet.

In this three-year span, Keselowski's one win came in Darlington. You could argue Darlington is Homestead's best comp given you have to rip the wall while also saving your tires. Keselowski was also runner-up last year in Charlotte, which has flashed some similar characteristics the past two years.

This has translated to Homestead, too. He was fifth here in 2022 and had an eighth-place average running position in 2023. The RFK cars weren't blazing quick in Vegas, but I've still got Keselowski at 17.0% to finish top 5, up from 13.3% implied.

Bubba Wallace to Finish Top 5 (+650)

(UPDATE: Wallace has since shortened to +370 to finish top 5. He was super fast in practice, so my model now has him 24.3% to finish top 5. This means he's still a value even at the shortened number. I also have value on Wallace to win at +2800.)

Not only are the odds on Bubba Wallace identical to Keselowski's, but he's nearly a mirror in the sims, too. I've got him at 16.9% to finish top 5. Thus, I'll just snag both.

Wallace had one of the better cars last week in Las Vegas. Despite starting 20th, he finished 4th in both stages and led 20 laps. He was caught up in a wreck not of his own doing late, but the speed was there.

Like Keselowski, Wallace has been solid on high-falloff tracks recently. In 2023, he had top-fives in Charlotte, Kansas, Vegas, and Darlington, all of which feature at least moderate falloff. He was also sixth in Homestead that year and had a 12th-place average running position last year.

I've got decent value on Wallace (and Keselowski, for that matter) to win at +4800, so I don't mind a swing for the fences. Given the presence of so many studs at this track, though, I do think the safety of the top-five is preferred.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Christopher Bell to Win (+1600)

Christopher Bell has officially gone 13 days without winning a race, an unthinkable drought for someone who won three of the first four races.

I don't see a scenario in which he should be this long to win today.

Bell's Saturday speed was solid. He ranked 7th in the average speed of his 10 fastest laps and 8th in the 20-lap split (after minor group adjustments). He qualified 16th, but starting position doesn't matter much at a track where tire falloff matters so much.

It's also not as if this is a bad track for Bell. He won here in 2023 and had a fifth-place average running position last year. Thus, at +1600, he's the best outright bet on the board.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Chase Briscoe to Finish Top 5 (+370)

With how much tire wear matters here, there's plenty overlap with Darlington. The most recent winner in Darlington -- Chase Briscoe -- is now in much better equipment for the first time in Homestead. I think we could see him flash upside.

Briscoe's practice speeds were decent but not amazing. He was 8th in the 10-lap split and 13th in the 20-lap. His fourth-place starting spot doesn't hurt, even if it's not something I care much about.

Although Briscoe has never finished better than 12th here in Cup, Homestead is a great track for him. He won his lone Truck Series start here in 2017 and then won an Xfinity race in 2020, as well. Given the overlap with Darlington and his success there, that shouldn't be a surprise.

Briscoe's now with Joe Gibbs Racing, meaning he'll have a rocketship underneath him. He has proven to this point he can hang with the big dogs on this track type even without that elite equipment, so I think a top-five bet at +370 is more than fair.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.