Best NASCAR Bets and Predictions for the Cracker Barrel 400 in Nashville

Given the top of the betting board is what gets the most attention, it's not often we can find value on one of the favorites entering a weekend.

We get an exception this week in Nashville.

Not only does Nashville feature a relatively low incident rate, but it's deep enough in the calendar where we have a good idea of each driver's form. Thus, we can have more confidence in backing a driver at a shorter number, knowing there's a good chance they'll at least be in contention.

Which driver stands out to me, and which other bets are worth considering?

Let's start by laying out my model's pre-practice simulations, and then we can run through three mid-week bets I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's NASCAR betting odds.

(UPDATE: The sims have since been updated after qualifying.)

NASCAR Predictions for Nashville

NASCAR Betting Picks for Nashville

Denny Hamlin to Win (+600)

(UPDATE: Hamlin has since shortened to +400 -- and for good reason. He was fast in both practice and qualifying, and he's now the runaway favorite in my model. I think the model could be too high on him, but I don't mind the +400 we're getting here. The issue would be if Hamlin's fiancee goes into labor mid-race, in which case bets would stand, per FanDuel's house rules, but the process of putting a backup driver in the car would torpedo the 11's chances of winning. It's a risk worth weighing considerably before placing bets here.)

Whenever my model shows value on Denny Hamlin to win on concrete, I'm inclined to buy in. It's a surface on which he has excelled during the Next-Gen era.

Since the start of 2022, the Cup Series has run 11 races at Nashville, Dover, or Bristol, the three concrete tracks on the circuit. Hamlin has won three of those with four additional top-fives, including a runner-up this year in Bristol. At Nashville, specifically, Hamlin's worst average running position is fifth across three trips.

Form is on Hamlin's side, too. He was a threat to win last week in Charlotte before a late pit stop error ruined his day, and he has wins at Martinsville and Darlington. It seems he hasn't quite fallen off despite this being his age-44 season.

As a result, my model has him slightly ahead of Kyle Larson as the race's favorite. Hamlin has also been qualifying well enough this year where I'd prefer to bet him now rather than waiting to see if I can get a better number over the weekend.

AJ Allmendinger to Finish Top 10 (+310)

(UPDATE: Allmendinger has since shortened to +220 for a top 10. He has shortened enough where he is no longer a value at that number.)

AJ Allmendinger combines surprising form with a strong history on concrete to stand out in a forgiving market.

The speed was on full display last week. Allmendinger was fast on Saturday, ran up front the entire night on Sunday, and finished fourth. It was already his fourth top-10 in 13 races.

One of those other top-10s came in Bristol, showing the concrete form is there. He won the Xfinity Series race at Nashville in 2023 and had a fourth-place average running position in last year's race. He followed that up by finishing 11th in the Cup Series race the next day.

Bristol has always been one of Allmendinger's better tracks, so his running well at Nashville makes sense. When you combine it with Kaulig Racing's new-found pace, I have Allmendinger at 31.5% to finish top 10, up from 24.4% implied.

Justin Haley to Finish Top 10 (+1100)

(UPDATE: Haley has since shortened to +750 to finish top 10. He has shortened enough where he is no longer a value at that number.)

If you want to bet on Spire Motorsports, I'm showing value in Carson Hocevar to finish top 5 at +600. Given Hocevar's near-win last week, it's tempting.

Personally, I have a slight preference for Hocevar's teammate at even longer odds to sneak into the top 10.

The longer odds make sense: Justin Haley hasn't been able to match Hocevar, potentially leading to his mid-season crew chief swap. Haley hasn't been entirely out to lunch, though, with a 10th-place finish in Homestead and a seventh-place average running position in Bristol. He also finished 15th in Texas a couple races ago.

We don't need Haley to spike to see value here. His implied odds for a top 10 are just 8.3%; I have him at 11.5%. Although it's a bit of a leap of faith with how things have gone, Haley finished 13th at this track in worse equipment last year with Rick Ware Racing, so I think he can get the job done.

Post-Qualifying Addition: William Byron to Win (+1000)

I don't often have outrights on two drivers +1000 or shorter, but I think this situation calls for it. Even with Hamlin already in pocket, I have a hard time passing up William Byron.

Based on my model's practice numbers, the clear top four in practice were Hamlin, Byron, Tyler Reddick, and Ross Chastain. The other three are all +850 or shorter while Byron is +1000. That's despite a third-place qualifying effort to top it off.

Although concrete hasn't been Byron's best surface, he has shown upside at times. He was sixth in Bristol this year, sixth in Nashville two years ago, and fourth in Dover that year, as well.

When you add that to his form -- he dominated most of last week's Coca-Cola 600 -- Byron winds up being the second most likely winner for me, trailing just Hamlin. I think there's enough data here to say he's a value at +1000.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Chris Buescher to Finish Top 10 (+300)

Chris Buescher seemed pleased with his car during practice yesterday and will start 10th, so I find it odd that he's +300 just to stay there.

Buescher ranked 14th in my model's 10- and 20-lap practice splits, which include an adjustment for group speed differentials. Those are more than respectable enough for someone in this range.

We've also seen RFK's form trending up. Buescher finished top-10 in Darlington and Kansas, and he had a 13th-place average running position last week in Charlotte.

That's good timing for him as concrete has been a plus surface. Buescher won at Bristol in 2022, has two top-10s in three Next-Gen races at Dover, and finished fifth in Nashville last year.

Thus, my model has Buescher above 40% for a top 10, blowing the doors off the implied odds here.

Post-Qualifying Addition: Ty Gibbs to Finish Top 10 (+460); Gibbs to Finish Top 5 (+1500)

I have value on Ty Gibbs across the board, and it's value I'm willing to trust.

Gibbs had good speed in practice Saturday, ranking 10th and 11th in my model's 10- and 20-lap splits, respectively. Although he qualified 22nd, there's pace in the car.

Gibbs has also shown upside even though he's hard to predict. He finished third in Bristol, the lone concrete track on the schedule so far. He was also ninth in Darlington, another intermediate track.

Last year in Nashville, Gibbs had an 11th-place average running position but finished 23rd thanks to all the late-race chaos. He was also 14th here as a rookie.

This is a spot where I'd want to divide my typical bet size, putting a bit on the top-5 market with the rest on the top-10. You could also consider him to win as he's a value for me there at +9500. Either way, Gibbs is a driver to whom I want exposure based on where the market stands.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.