Best MLB Same Game Parlay Bet for Thursday 6/12/25

Major League Baseball is a sport perfectly suited for same game parlays.

Not only do we have abundant options across the traditional markets and props for both pitchers and hitters, but plenty of those bets correlate well. Given parlays require all legs to hit, that cohesion is key.

Which SGP stands out to me tonight?

Let's dig into the New York Yankees at the Kansas City Royals and lay out where I'm seeing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds.

Please note lines and MLB projections are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All MLB odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB SGP for Yankees at Royals

Leg 1: Will Warren Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-136)

The Royals have the second-lowest K%, raising some questions around Will Warren's strikeout prop. New York's starter is in the 87th percentile of strikeout rate while carrying 11.77 K/9. He's logging 5.8 strikeouts per start and has reached six Ks in six of the last seven starts. Which side will fold in tonight's meeting?

Warren's top three pitches are a four-seam fastball (37.1%), sweeper (23.7%), and sinker (18.4%). This should be an advantage against Kansas City, which is in the bottom 10 of runs above average against all three pitches.

His top K pitch among the trio is his four-seamer with a 34.7% strikeout rate. This once again checks out considering the Royals have the eighth-fewest runs above average when facing the pitch.

Sitting in the 17th percentile of walk rate is one of the concerns for Warren's strikeout potential. However, some of this could be offset by Kansas City totaling the fewest walks per game.

Warren has been the epitome of consistency by reaching at least five strikeouts in eight of his previous nine appearances. Our MLB DFS projections have him racking up 5.4 strikeouts.

Leg 2: Vinnie Pasquantino to Record an RBI (+135)

While I expect Warren to have success in the strikeout category, this doesn't mean the Royals will be completely shut out.

Bobby Witt Jr. and Maikel Garcia are each hitting .279 or better against right-handed hurlers. Witt has gotten on base in eight of his last nine and is batting .306 in June. Garcia has also been on base in six of his previous eight, as well.

Vinnie Pasquantino hits behind the two in the clean up spot. As Kansas City's RBI leader (38), this is a promising pick with Pasquantino hitting .300 against righties compared to .207 when facing southpaws. He's also batting .250 against four-seamers and .441 when seeing sweepers, which make up Warren's most-used pitches.

After finishing in the 80th percentile of hard-hit percentage in the 2024 season, Pasquantino's slugging hasn't been quite the same by ranking in the 58th percentile of the category thus far. Warren ranks in the 28th percentile of barrel rate allowed and 3rd percentile of hard-hit percentage ceded. Perhaps Pasquantino can begin climbing up the ranks in slugging once again.

Projections have Pasquantino in line for the most RBIs on Kansas City tonight (0.76).

Leg 3: Yankees Over 4.5 Runs (-132)

For the Royals, Seth Lugo will be on the mound. He's typically allowed more homers than we like to see, but his HR/9 dropped to 0.70 a season ago. However, this is back up to 1.66. He's finished with a HR/9 above 1.15 in four of five seasons since 2020.

We know the Yankees are as dangerous as it gets when it comes to dingers. Not only is New York first in home runs per game and home run percentage, but they also boast the top SLG and isolated power. Lugo is currently in the 41st percentile of barrel rate allowed and 12th percentile of hard-hit percentage allowed.

With the second-highest batting average and 5.5 runs per game (the most), over 4.5 runs feels like a no-brainer with this matchup. The Yanks are in the top 3 of runs above average against two of Lugo's three most-used pitches and in the top 10 against his top three tools (four-seam fastball, curveball, and sinker).

Between struggles against slugging and New York hitting well against Lugo's pitches, expect the Yankees to reach five runs for the sixth straight game.

SGP Odds at Time of Publication: +581

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.