UFC Atlanta Best Bets and Props: Usman vs. Buckley

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Atlanta: Usman vs. Buckley, taking place at the State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Georgia on Saturday.

UFC Atlanta Betting Picks

Phil Rowe vs. Ange Loosa

Rowe to Win (+108)

In general, I feel Ange Loosa's skillset and level of competition are undervalued, but here's another brutal matchup.

Having battled Gabriel Bonfim, Jack Della Maddalena, and Bryan Battle, Loosa is no stranger to a tough fight. I think that's why he's favored, but Phil Rowe is another one. "The Fresh Prince" has a massive 80" reach for welterweight, and he's won all three UFC fights by (T)KO behind a solid 0.96% knockdown rate (KD%).

Rowe has jiu-jitsu credentials that have found him in Craig Jones and Gordon Ryan's bracket on the pro grappling circuit, yet we haven't really seen those skills translate to UFC. Loosa, with just one sloppy UFC submission attempt, doesn't seem overly comfortable there.

The favorite's notorious durability has led to seeing the judges' scorecards in all five official UFC fights, yet Rowe's inherent submission and knockout upside loom. Modeling the lanky underdog at 50.9% to win, I think the best bet is just to stick to Rowe's moneyline.

Cody Garbrandt vs. Raoni Barcelos

Garbrandt to Win (+164)
Garbrandt by KO/TKO (+380)

Wins will cure all in the eyes of the MMA betting public. Raoni Barcelos' varying strength of schedule might not be getting enough credit here.

Barcelos' trip back to the entry level was a successful one, turning away Payton Talbott (3-1 UFC) and Cristian Quinonez (1-2 UFC) as an underdog. He was able to exploit their lack of experience, but former 135-pound champion Cody Garbrandt is a different story.

To be honest, I'm not treating Garbrandt as a ranked-caliber opponent, though. "No Love" held the title in 2018 -- a totally different era of UFC -- even if he's just 33 years old now. A somewhat tumultuous 3-5 run since losing his belt might make several aspects of his game, like a fight-changing 2.53 KD% and well-tested 80% takedown D, completely underrated.

Don't get me wrong. Barcelos should be a slight favorite because his +0.47 striking success rate (SSR) trumps Cody's (-0.78), and he presumably has the offensive grappling upside here. However, Raoni is now 38 and has been dropped in two of his last four fights. Garbrandt could turn this fight on one shot.

I've got the former champion 45.7% likely to win this one. It comes via knockout 24.2% of the time, which trails only a Barcelos decision (28.4%) in the model's outcomes.

Edmen Shahbazyan vs. Andre Petroski

Shahbazyan by KO/TKO in Round 1 or 2 (+175)

Not many people thought Andre Petroski had a shot in his last fight, but we did. This is an entirely different matchup for him.

Petroski's 85% takedown D was a perfect match to keep him away from Rodolfo Vieira's dangerous submission game, and he won a razor-close decision despite a -3 striking differential. That was the whole point of playing a decision at +440. Edmen Shahbazyan's massive advantage in the standup is a different story.

Shahbazyan has won the distance strike differential in seven straight fights, which might be lost on some because of his own issues with endurance and average takedown defense (65%). The middleweight's 1.74 KD% is also gigantic, which is how he's finished all but one of his seven UFC wins inside the first two rounds.

"Golden Boy" is dangerous when fresh, and Petroski has been susceptible to that. He lasted just 66 seconds against Michel Pereira (3-2 at middleweight) and was the first knockout victim of Jacob Malkoun (4-3 UFC) inside six minutes.

I've got Shahbazyan just a 53.3% favorite here, so his moneyline is a bad deal. However, a 37.6% ruling that he can score an early knockout brings this line into play.

Rose Namajunas vs. Miranda Maverick

Maverick by Points (+280)

Rose Namajunas isn't in her correct weight class, making this an obvious play around 3-to-1 odds with any wrestler.

Namajunas' 61% takedown D is analytically average, but she's been floored multiple times in three of her four fights at flyweight. The exception, Manon Fiorot, basically never wrestles. The former champ at 115 pounds is usually down on power, which is why the former knockout artist has had to settle for decisions in all four 125-pound results.

If Miranda Maverick hasn't been finished in 11 UFC fights, what's the cause for concern she's not around to make this ugly? Attempting 5.83 takedowns per 15 minutes, "Fear the Maverick" lands enough of those shots (41%) to disrupt Rose's rhythm and get this into the clinch.

Maverick entered UFC early, so she's still just 27. Entering her prime, I think some might be surprised why she got this co-main event, but it might finally be her arrival into the division's top 10. The masses seem to be fading her spotty tape, but here could lie yet another reason to fade film study results in UFC betting markets. Fighters change.

I've got Maverick 46.8% likely to win Saturday's fight. It's a decision 41.5% of the time as both ladies have very little finishing equity.

Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley

Usman to Win (+210)
Usman in Round 4, 5, or by Points (+390)

The idea of matching up a prime version of Kamaru Usman with this version of Joaquin Buckley is hysterical, but that's not what we're getting from the 38-year-old in Atlanta.

Frankly, I'm not sure anyone knows what we're getting. Usman has fought just twice since the start of 2023 and lost both fights. He's been waiting for perhaps the right sequence of events for a title shot, but it never manifested as Leon Edwards, the man who dethroned him, has now lost consecutive bouts himself.

Usman's last effort was actually the toughest fight of Khamzat Chimaev's career away from this 170-pound division. At 185 pounds, "The Nigerian Nightmare" took Chimaev to a majority decision with a respectable -2 striking differential.

I've admittedly lost a lot of coin fading "New Mansa" Buckley's surge into welterweight's top 10, but each of Buckley's last six wins have continued to age like milk after they happened. He lost, comfortably, at distance to a 41-year-old Stephen Thompson (-15 striking differential) before turning the tide with a late, third-round KO.

Accrued at a championship level, Usman's +1.62 SSR is too good to expect an inaccurate striker like Buckley (37%) to win at distance, and the underdog's 89% takedown D is legendary. Maybe the former champ is too old, but I've got enough win equity modeled here (38.1%) to take small darts that Buckley's rise to prominence is more sizzle than substance.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.