Which NFL Betting Win Totals Have Changed the Most Entering the 2025 Season?

As the calendar turns to August, the NFL futures market is finally starting to take shape.

Not only do we largely know what each roster will look like for the 2025 NFL season, but if you bet futures now -- versus April or May -- you're locking up bankroll for a shorter period of time. Thus, we should have fewer holdouts waiting to bet futures later, making markets more efficient as we inch closer to Week 1.

To me, that makes any changes we've seen in win totals extra noteworthy. If a team's win total is getting bet up, the market is buying in. And if it starts to go down? It might be time to hold onto your butts.

With that in mind, let's dig into the four teams whose win totals have shifted most across this summer and try to glean what it means. These shifts are from where the team's NFL win total betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook were after the draft versus where they're at today.

Biggest 2025 NFL Betting Win Total Moves

Minnesota Vikings

Over 8.5 Wins: From -125 to -145

As someone who loved J.J. McCarthy coming out of college, this is music to my ears. The market is buying into McCarthy as the starter.

Back in May, there was still some question about McCarthy's recovery from a knee injury he suffered prior to his rookie season. But with camp now open, McCarthy has been operating without issue, which could have contributed to this inflation.

As much as I love McCarthy, I'd have a hard time buying any further enthusiasm in this number. My win total model has the Vikings pegged at 8.4 wins as things stand. Part of that is I'm baking in a three-game suspension for wide receiver Jordan Addison, which could make McCarthy's first couple starts a bit rockier.

They also have a difficult schedule as their win total is 0.39 wins lower in my projections than you'd expect based on their power rating alone, giving them the seventh-toughest schedule in the league. I'm not currently looking at the under for the Vikings, given my McCarthy trutherism, but it's a total worth monitoring the rest of the summer.

New Orleans Saints

Under 5.5 Wins: From -110 to -165

The New Orleans Saints are one of only a few teams whose baseline win total has completely shifted off its initial mark. Here, we have an obvious explanation in Derek Carr's surprise retirement.

The market had already reacted to the potential for Carr to be out as it had previously been reported that Carr was dealing with a shoulder injury that could cost him the 2025 season. Getting confirmation we'd see Spencer Rattler, Tyler Shough, or Jake Haener just plunged that deeper.

Technically, I could see value in betting the Saints' over as my model has them projected at 5.4 wins. But I could not possibly have less faith in that, so you could not pay me to back this team with the current state of its quarterback room.

San Francisco 49ers

Over 10.5 Wins: From +115 to -110

The explanation here seems pretty simple, too: people have finally caught on to how easy the San Francisco 49ers' schedule is.

As things stand, I have the 49ers' win total 1.10 wins higher than you'd expect based on their power rating. No other team gets a boost of more than 0.60 wins. I have them at 11.02 wins once you input the schedule versus an expectation of just 9.92 wins.

The market's movement is a bit odd, given the slate of opponents was known before the draft and, thus, should have been accounted for. The market's enthusiasm has also increased despite questions around the availability of Jauan Jennings (calf and contract) and Brandon Aiyuk (ACL recovery).

Due to the uncertainty around the receivers and the age of key pieces like Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams, I have no interest in the baseline win total here. There are scenarios where the bottom falls out, as it did in 2024.

Instead, if I'm betting them, I want to go aggressive. That could mean betting them to win the NFC, but the easy schedule could also meaning opting for an alt win total over to give me more upside for the risk I'm taking on.

Green Bay Packers

Over 9.5 Wins: From +115 to -110

This move on the Green Bay Packers seems to fall in the same bucket as the Vikings': vibes be good, man.

I understand why this has happened, too. My model has the Packers -- despite a tougher-than-average schedule -- at 9.9 wins, putting me roughly in line with market. They were still efficient passing last year despite numerous Jordan Love injuries, and they should be able to sling it more now that he's healthy. They've also got a defense that largely played good ball last year.

I don't see value in this over any longer as things stand, but I definitely understand why things have trended this way.

Other Noteworthy 2025 NFL Betting Win Total Moves

Chicago Bears: Over 8.5 wins from +115 to +135

Cleveland Browns: Over 5.5 wins from +120 to +140

Las Vegas Raiders: Over 7.5 wins from +125 to +145

Miami Dolphins: Over 8.5 wins from +125 to +160

Pittsburgh Steelers: Over 8.5 wins from +120 to +100

Which NFL futures stand out to you? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the full menu of options.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.