Will Tarik Skubal Win His Second Straight AL Cy Young Award in 2025?

We're not even halfway through the MLB season, but it's never too early to look ahead at the season-long awards landscape.

Tarik Skubal took home his first Cy Young award for the Detroit Tigers in 2024. He's favored to repeat the achievement this year, per FanDuel Sportsbook's AL Cy Young odds.

He would become just the 12th player in MLB history to win the award in back-to-back seasons. Can Skubal defend his title?

Will Tarik Skubal Win the AL Cy Young Award in 2025?

Skubal headed into his 14th start of the season on Thursday with -180 Cy Young odds. He left with even shorter -280 odds thanks to pitching seven shutout innings and allowing just three hits.

Last night's outing leaves Skubal with a 1.99 ERA, which is actually just the fifth-best mark among AL starters. However, Skubal's advanced metrics are unrivaled. He sports a 2.34 xERA, 2.35 xFIP, 2.30 SIERA, 32.7% strikeout rate, and 3.6 WAR -- American League-best marks across the board.

Based on the stats thus far, are Skubal's -280 Cy Young odds deserved?

Notably, seven of the last eight AL Cy Young winners led the league in ERA. Currently, Skubal has a ton of competition in that arena. However, his AL-best xERA and xFIP suggest continued success in the ERA department. FanGraphs' updated in-season projections -- both ZiPS and Steamer -- forecast Skubal to lead MLB in ERA by the end of the year. It's hard to disagree there considering Skubal's underlying marks and the fact that he was able to hold on to an AL-best 2.39 ERA last season.

Moreover, 13 of the last 15 AL Cy Young winners -- not including the shortened 2020 season -- achieved at least 13 wins, 205 strikeouts, and a 2.85 ERA. According to ZiPS' updated in-season projections, Skubal (15 wins, 231 Ks, 2.32 ERA) and Garrett Crochet (+1300 odds; 13 wins, 220 Ks, 2.67 ERA) are the only AL hurlers expected to fit that criteria.

Does that make Crochet a worthy pivot at +1300 odds? Perhaps. Crochet currently ranks second in K rate (31.3%), third in xFIP (2.80), and third in xERA (2.97) among AL hurlers.

Nonetheless, if Skubal stays healthy, he is in line to win his second straight AL Cy Young award.

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