Belgium are the clear pick. Their superior squad depth — Courtois in goal, De Bruyne in midfield, Lukaku up front — gives them multiple routes to the win. Iran's team is drawn almost entirely from the domestic league (suspended since February) and must fly into the US the day before each match from Mexico. CBS Sports picks Belgium 2-1, Sports Interaction predicts 2-0. At -230, the price is short but reflects genuine quality. The draw (+360) is possible given Belgium's Egypt showing but Iran's defensive vulnerabilities make it unlikely to hold Belgium scoreless.

FanDuel Research: "Iran conceded twice to New Zealand and allowed several dangerous opportunities. Belgium has a lot more firepower than New Zealand." CBS SportsLine's Jon Eimer specifically leans Over: Iran plays a high and aggressive press and has scored multiple goals in each of its last four matches. Belgium's 5-2 vs USA and 5-0 vs Tunisia pre-tournament show genuine firepower. Both sides need points — neither can sit back. The most likely game script (Belgium 2-1 or 2-0) goes Over 2.5.

FanDuel Research is explicit: back Lukaku at these odds if he starts. Iran's central defence consists entirely of domestic-league players who face Belgium's all-time leading scorer with 90 international goals. His physical mismatch against Iran's CBs (Khalilzadeh and Nemati) is the same type of advantage that unlocked the Egypt game in 22 seconds. JuveFC: "Lukaku's physical presence should cause problems throughout." At -105 (virtually even money), backing Belgium's starting striker against this level of opposition is well-supported value.

Sports Interaction explicitly backs De Bruyne for 1+ G+A at +100 as their primary named prop. In a game Belgium are expected to dominate, De Bruyne will have extended spells in possession against a domestic-league midfield. Whether he supplies the assist for Lukaku's goal or scores directly from a free kick or long-range effort, his involvement in Belgium's goals is near-certain. As penalty taker and primary FK taker, he has two additional specific routes to score. Even money for Belgium's creative engine in a game they heavily favour is the kind of value that doesn't last.

Belgium possess significantly superior quality across every department. With Lukaku starting (projected) and De Bruyne pulling strings behind him, the quality gap against a domestic-league Iranian squad — who must fly in from Mexico, losing preparation and recovery time — is decisive. Iran twice came from behind against New Zealand and Taremi's counter-attack threat means this is unlikely to be a clean sheet for Belgium. The most likely scenario is a 2-0 or 2-1 Belgian win that covers the -1.5 line and goes Over 2.5.