The Thanksgiving slate kicks off with a matchup between the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions, a game where the Lions are big favorites, and the total is high.

That means fantasy point potential in single-game formats -- as well as the full slate.

For those unfamiliar, single-game slates feature five flex spots with identical scoring to the main slate. However, kickers are included in these contests, and there is an "MVP" roster slot. The MVP receives 1.5 times his total fantasy points, making this spot crucial.

FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula (hey, that's me) has done a deep dive on single-game strategy, and FanDuel Research has NFL DFS projections if you select the game from the slate tab. It's worth checking out both before making your lineups.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook.

Bears at Lions NFL DFS Picks

Game Overview

The Lions are heavy favorites over the Bears in this matchup.

In games with spreads of at least 7.0 points and totals of at least 47.0 in my optimal lineup database, a few things stand out for this game versus the full sample.

Firstly, quarterbacks are more commonly the MVP in perfects (41.9%) in similar games compared to the full sample (34.1%).

We actually see a noticeable dip in running back MVP rate (19.4% from 29.2%) and an uptick in wide receiver MVP rate (32.3% from 24.3%).

Also, 3-2 stacks are 64.5% likely in this sample, up from 61.0% on the full sample. So, even with a big spread, 4-1 onslaught lineups are less likely than we may think.

Of course, we need to account for this particular game and current situations, but we can use those to help guide our strategy a bit.

MVP Candidates

Amon-Ra St. Brown ($15,500) holds the highest salary on the board, and Jahmyr Gibbs ($15,000) joins him in the $15,000 tier. Following them are Jared Goff ($13,500), Caleb Williams ($12,500), and David Montgomery ($12,000).

The Lions are dealing with some injuries. Notably, these include St. Brown, Montgomery, offensive tackle Taylor Decker, and Kalif Raymond ($7,000) on the offensive side of the ball, but it sounds like St. Brown and Montgomery will play.

When I simulate out the slate 10,000 times based on numberFire's projections, I find that Gibbs (26.9%) is the most likely player to lead in FanDuel points, followed by Goff (24.6%) and Williams (17.0%).

Historically speaking, this is a good spot for WRs to be the top scorer, but we have a banged-up St. Brown facing a pass defense that ranks 1st in target-per-route rate allowed to wideouts (albeit just 15th in yards per route run). St. Brown has a 28.5% target share and a 30.0% red zone target share on the season -- building blocks for a huge game.

Gibbs, being the healthiest key skill position player for Detroit, has what it takes to buck the trend of prior MVPs in games like this one. Chicago ranks fifth-worst by rushing yards over expectation allowed to RBs this season, and Gibbs just played a season-high 66.7% snap rate with Montgomery limited last week. Gibbs has averaged 104.6 scrimmage yards per game -- by far the most of anyone in this matchup. D'Andre Swift ($11,000) is next up at 85.7, but we'll discuss him later.

Montgomery, if active, is noteworthy due to his red zone role (a 31.7% opportunity share in his active games, better than Gibbs' 29.4%). He's actually third in scrimmage yards per game (79.4) despite the shared backfield with Gibbs.

The sims like Gibbs and Goff primarily to lead in scoring, and it's hard to argue with that. St. Brown has historical MVP trends and an elite market share in his favor, though. St. Brown has some overall yardage concerns (67.5 per game)

But Caleb Williams is in the conversation for an MVP differentiation play.

In two games with a new offensive coordinator, Williams has averaged 285.5 passing yards on 39.0 attempts for great EPA numbers -- and also 7.5 carries (3.5 designed rushes) for 51.5 rushing yards per game. If playing from behind, rushes and passing volume could make up for a big fantasy day. We still need passing efficiency and touchdowns, of course, but there's a case to be made for Williams at MVP while numerous Lions likely shake out as more popular.

Flex Targets

A few other players have a differentiation case for the MVP slot: D.J. Moore ($11,500), Keenan Allen ($11,000), Jameson Williams ($10,000), and even Rome Odunze ($8,500).

Let's start with the Bears' wideouts. Since the team's Week 7 bye, Odunze actually leads in air yards share per game, but Allen is first in target share.

Moore is still seeing a 20.4% share in this five-game split, but that's not bad at all for someone who can also get carries. Still, the three of them are better flex plays and pair well with Williams MVP lineups.

Jameson Williams is slotting in with a 20.5% target share and 38.7% air yards share in three games since returning. The Bears are 29th in aDOT allowed to opposing WRs this year, so Williams indoors and with a high total could have a big game. Williams also has averaged 71.1 yards per game from scrimmage, fourth-best in this matchup.

As for the other primary players here, Sam LaPorta ($9,500) is interesting from a touchdown standpoint. He has a 57.1% red zone share in two games with Williams back in the lineup and a 38.1% red zone share in six post-bye games.

Speaking of the red zone, that's the main reason to downgrade D'Andre Swift ($11,000). He has a 5.3% red zone opportunity share in two games with the new OC and just a 15.6% share since the Week 7 bye. Roschon Johnson ($9,500) has a 28.1% red zone share since the week off and a 36.8% share since the OC change. Swift is playing just over half the snaps right now. He can still break big plays, but the salary doesn't fully account for the role change.

Cole Kmet's salary is only $7,500, and he's coming off of a 10-target game (albeit a still-good 21.3% target share in a high-volume game). Kmet has averaged 53.0 yards on a 16.7% target share in two games since the coordinator change. He's also played every red zone snap in that split.

Lastly, Tim Patrick ($8,500) ran 47.5% of the Lions' routes last week and earned 4 targets. It's hard to justify him in a vacuum over Odunze at the same salary, but in a Goff MVP lineup or a Lions onslaught, there's a case to be made.

This is a good overall single-game slate with some dispersed market shares but still concentrated enough to keep us focused on the primary performers.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.