3 Best NFL Bets and Player Props for Bears at Lions on Thanksgiving
Even within a single NFL game, betting markets are abundant.
You've got everything from spreads and totals to touchdown scorers and player props at your disposal. It can be a lot to sort through.
So, which bets stand out on Thanksgiving as the Chicago Bears take on the Detroit Lions? Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds to find out.
All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.
Bears at Lions Thanksgiving Betting Picks
Total Over 48.5 (-110)
Total Match Points
My model is super high on the Lions heading into this game, enough so where I could back their spread.
But this allows me to root for Caleb Williams rather than against him, so sign me up.
Most of the enthusiasm does come from the Lions' side of the ball. They're second in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings. The Bears rank 11th defensively, but they've started to slide in recent weeks and now have to go on the road and play indoors.
As for the Lions' defense, they've also graded out well, but they keep losing pieces. First, it was Aidan Hutchinson, and then in Week 11, they lost linebacker Alex Anzalone. They played great without him last week, but now corner Carlton Davis is banged up, as well. Eventually, they could start to slip, giving some relief to Williams and this new-look offense.
Even with left tackle Taylor Decker and receiver Kalif Raymond projected as out, I've still got this total at 51.3. When that's, objectively, the more fun way to bet this game, I'm happy to take it.
Sam LaPorta Any Time Touchdown (+250)
I'm more willing to bet touchdown props in games where I like the over. That's the case here, and I think that Sam LaPorta is the best route for doing so.
LaPorta's role has been underwhelming this year. In the games he has played with Jameson Williams, LaPorta's overall target share is 12.6% with just a 17.1% red-zone target share. It's a huge part of why he has scored in just three games.
But 3 of 10 games is still 30.0%, and his implied odds here are 28.6%. So even with his target numbers hitting a nadir, LaPorta has still hit above this mark.
I'd expect LaPorta's role to expand going forward in part because we've already seen that start to happen. He has six targets in three of his past four games, totaling eight red-zone targets in that time. He had two last week, so that shoulder injury didn't seem to linger too much.
With the Lions' scoring expectations this high, I think this number undersells LaPorta and what his role could look like down the stretch.
Jameson Williams 70-Plus Receiving Yards (+200)
Jameson Williams' baseline receiving prop is 47.5 yards. He has gone over that number in seven of nine games this year, making it look like a value.
But in all but two of those games, he has also gotten to 70 yards, pushing me toward the alternate market.
Williams is the prototype of what you want out of an alt-market receiver. He leads the team with a 31.3% deep target share in the games he has played with LaPorta, and he can house any of those. His overall target share in those games -- 18.3% -- shows that his overall involvement is nice, too.
The big concern here is game script: if the Lions build a big lead, they won't have to throw, suppressing volume for the pass-catchers. But of Williams' five games with 70-plus yards, the Lions' average scoring differential was +19.8 points. He's a big enough part of the offense where if they romp, he's likely part of the reason they got there.
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Which bets stand out to you for this week's games? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest NFL betting odds to see the lines for each contest.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.