NFL Week 13 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game
In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.
Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 13's NFL games.
As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.
The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.
Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.
Last updated Sunday morning with most recent wind speed and player availability projections.
NFL Week 13 Predictions
Bears at Lions Prediction
Spread Prediction: Lions -14.3
Total Prediction: 51.4
Betting Odds
Thoughts: I don't have a great sample in my model of teams being favored this heavily, so I'm not itchy to bet the Detroit Lions' spread. I do like the over, though, as it gets me exposure to Caleb Williams, who has stacked back-to-back solid games.
Giants at Cowboys Prediction
Spread Prediction: Cowboys -2.3
Total Prediction: 39.4
Betting Odds
Thoughts: This is now projecting Drew Lock as the starter with Tommy DeVito a "longshot" to play, according to Jordan Raanan of ESPN.
Dolphins at Packers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Packers -3.7
Total Prediction: 44.3
Betting Odds
Thoughts: Slightly elevated winds paired with two teams with underwhelming pace and decent defenses is what leads me to back the under.
Raiders at Chiefs Prediction
Spread Prediction: Chiefs -13.8
Total Prediction: 48.7
Betting Odds
Thoughts: Model appears to be expecting more out of the Las Vegas Raiders' offense than the market. Still prefer the full game over because Patrick Mahomes' recent efficiency uptick seems sticky to me.
Chargers at Falcons Prediction
Spread Prediction: Falcons -1.9
Total Prediction: 47.1
Betting Odds
Thoughts: Model views these two teams as relatively even with a slight lean toward the Los Angeles Chargers. But once you give the Atlanta Falcons a bye and homefield advantage, I'm comfortable with their moneyline.
Steelers at Bengals Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bengals -2.9
Total Prediction: 45.6
Betting Odds
Cardinals at Vikings Prediction
Spread Prediction: Vikings -4.8
Total Prediction: 47.4
Betting Odds
Colts at Patriots Prediction
Spread Prediction: Colts -1.9
Total Prediction: 40.8
Betting Odds
Seahawks at Jets Prediction
Spread Prediction: Jets -2.2
Total Prediction: 40.6
Betting Odds
Thoughts: Yarf. This is even after giving the Seattle Seahawks' defense a decent bump. It's a "do as I say, not as I do" scenario where I took the New York Jets' moneyline but can't recommend you do the same.
Titans at Commanders Prediction
Spread Prediction: Commanders -9.6
Total Prediction: 47.5
Betting Odds
Thoughts: I've become more open to betting the Washington Commanders now that their running back situation is less dire, but not having right tackle Andrew Wylie still matters.
Texans at Jaguars Prediction
Spread Prediction: Texans -3.6
Total Prediction: 43.8
Betting Odds
Rams at Saints Prediction
Spread Prediction: Saints -0.8
Total Prediction: 48.9
Betting Odds
Thoughts: Currently projecting center Erik McCoy as out after he failed to practice all week but still showing value in the New Orleans Saints.
Buccaneers at Panthers Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bucs -8.5
Total Prediction: 48.8
Betting Odds
Thoughts: I kinda just think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a good football team? I don't mind going back to the well even with Bryce Young showing life last week.
Eagles at Ravens Prediction
Spread Prediction: Ravens -4.7
Total Prediction: 53.3
Betting Odds
Thoughts: The Philadelphia Eagles are scary right now, but so are the Baltimore Ravens. I agree with the model that the Ravens are the right side here.
49ers at Bills Prediction
Spread Prediction: Bills -5.3
Total Prediction: 48.7
Betting Odds
Thoughts: Now that we know Brock Purdy will play and Nick Bosa will not, I'm comfortable taking the over even with no Trent Williams.
Browns at Broncos Prediction
Spread Prediction: Broncos -6.8
Total Prediction: 42.6
Betting Odds
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.