5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Sunday 8/3/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

New York Yankees at Miami Marlins

Yankees Moneyline (-118)

The mighty New York Yankees are in position to be swept by the not-so-mighty Miami Marlins? Perhaps longing for College GameDay episodes before Pat McAfee...not so fast my friend.

New York gets the slight nod from me when this lineup is still loaded despite Aaron Judge (elbow) landing on the IL. One might look at the Marlins' .801 OPS against righties in the past 30 days and say they've outperformed the Bombers (.789), but there's a massive gap in luck behind that. Miami's BABIP in this split is .299 compared to a more normal .259 for the Yankees.

I also trust the Yanks' righty a tiny bit more than the Fishes'. The team has been waiting for Luis Gil, and he seems ready to roll for his first start of 2025, per a 3.07 xFIP in 14.1 innings in Triple-A. Edward Cabrera is still having notable issues with hard contact (44.2% rate allowed), and his skill-interactive ERA (3.80 SIERA) is a good bit higher than his actual (3.35).

This is a good opportunity for the Yankees to reclaim a bit of momentum or luck.

Minnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians

Guardians Over 4.5 Runs (-104)

Another Jose Ureña opportunity in the big '25?

Ureña has somehow found work with a fourth club this season, and like most of the others, the Minnesota Twins are desperate. The right-hander's 5.21 SIERA and 12.2% strikeout rate have underperformed at every turn, and we'll get to his frightening contact splits in a moment.

Minnesota's bullpen isn't great, either. They've got MLB's second-worst reliever xFIP in the past 30 days (4.44).

Oddsmakers have to be concerned about the Cleveland Guardians' offense in this spot, which is fair. However, Cleveland has inched up to 15th in OPS against righties in the past month (.737) compared to their bottom-five mark for most 30-day periods this season.

Cleveland found a way to scratch across five runs yesterday against Bailey Ober. Ureña has proved at three stops he just doesn't have what it takes at this level anymore.

Kyle Manzardo to Hit a Home Run (+390)

The Guards now have three legitimate bats in this split, which is why you've seen the improvement on a team level.

Kyle Manzardo and Bo Naylor have joined the great Jose Ramirez in raking against opposite-handed bats in the past month. Manzardo, specifically, has posted a .975 OPS, .278 ISO, 52.5% flyball rate, and 39.0% hard-hit rate over his last 66 plate appearances (PAs).

Ureña's 14.9% barrel rate would be the worst qualifying mark in MLB if he had the sample, and he's coughed up 2.45 HR/9. The Twins' bullpen has allowed the third-most HR/9 (1.25) in the past month themselves, which won't improve without Jhoan Duran.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.28 median home runs from Manzardo on Sunday. We'd have put the first baseman closer to +309 for a bomb.

Chicago White Sox at Los Angeles Angels

Over 9.5 Runs (+108)

These teams combining for one run yesterday is a bit shocking because, even as awful pitchers face awful batters, it's surprising to see such a lopsided outcome.

Today's might be very, very different. The Chicago White Sox, fresh off the shutout, send Sean Burke's concerning 4.68 SIERA to toe the slab. Burke's elevated flyball (46.7%) and hard-hit (41.1%) rates allowed are a concern in MLB's eighth-best park for bombs.

The Los Angeles Angels likely won't fare much better. Jack Kochanowicz's 5.15 SIERA is just a few innings short of qualifying for the worst mark in baseball, and the long ball (1.46 HR/9) hasn't been his friend, either.

Surprisingly, both of these clubs dodge the bottom 10 in team OPS against righties in the past 30 days even including yesterday's letdown. I think there's enough here to expect one of the starters to get torched.

Yoan Moncada to Record 2+ Total Bases (+155)

I talked about luck a bit with the Yankees, but a guy who really could use some is L.A.'s Yoan Moncada.

A surface-level look at Moncada's counting stats shows someone struggling. He's managed just a .156 average and .133 ISO in the past 30 days (or 51 PAs). However, in this time, his flyball (51.4%) and hard-hit (42.9%) are phenomenal; they're top-three marks on the team. He's been bitten by a pitiful .156 BABIP -- not grounding out slowly to second base.

Burke's poor contact marks do enhance the argument that he could drive one with force today. Moncada's walk rate in this sample (9.8%) is pretty normal, too.

At 0.18 projected median homers, we show a tinge of value on the third baseman to round 'em. However, I prefer Moncada in this market. At 1.59 median total bases, we'd have set him closer to +112 for multiple bases, and he's probably just trying to not find gloves at this point.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.