5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 8/9/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Kansas City Royals at Minnesota Twins

Royals Moneyline in First 5 Innings (-122)

It's been a tough season for Bailey Ober, and I'll bet it to get a bit tougher here.

Ober has given up at least four earned runs in six straight starts, so it's not as if the margin for the Kansas City Royals to win the first five innings should be razor-thin. I'm just fading a Royals 'pen with the league's sixth-worst reliever xFIP over the past 30 days (4.22) in case things get wonky late.

Kansas City has righted the ship a bit to sit sixth in OPS against righties in this same period (.773). That should outduel a Minnesota Twins squad, admittedly, that has an .806 OPS against southpaws like Noah Cameron in this same period, but Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa are no longer part of the sample.

Cameron (3.13 xERA) has been quite good in his rookie campaign, so if he can avoid getting shelled, it's tough to see Ober holding up in hitter-friendly winds at Target Field.

Salvador Perez to Hit a Home Run (+330)

We'll ride those winds for today's dinger pick, too.

Salvador Perez homered in consecutive games to start August but hasn't rounded the bases since last Saturday. I'm still extremely impressed by his splits against righties in the past month, including a .333 ISO, 50.0% flyball rate, and 40.4% hard-hit rate. That sample encompasses 73 plate appearances (PAs) -- and a team-best 6 bombs.

Ober's home run tendencies are downright horrid. He's coughed up 2.13 HR/9 behind groundball (29.7%) and barrel (11.1%) rates in the 11th percentile or worse across MLB.

Those aforementioned winds are blowing out to left, so a right-handed stick should benefit most from them. 17 of Perez's 20 bombs this year have come left of center field.

Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 9.5 Runs (-104)

The Colorado Rockies are a traveling circus, finding the "under" side of a total on Friday for the first time this month -- but only thanks to their own ineptitude in a 6-1 defeat.

Colorado's pitching staff might be a lost cause as they reluctantly send Bradley Blalock (5.96 xERA) to the bump with no other alternatives, but the Rockies' bullpen deserves a special shout with MLB's worst xFIP over the past 30 days (4.51). I don't think anyone is doubting the Arizona Diamondbacks' side of this total.

I have hope for the Rox, too, though. Eduardo Rodriguez's 5.53 ERA might never catch up to his expected (4.13 xERA) this year, and Colorado's right-hand-dominant lineup has a sporty .733 OPS (12th in MLB) against lefties in the past month.

Arizona's bullpen (4.18 xFIP in the last 30 days) isn't foreign to its own struggles, so I'll back yet another Rockies over in August at MLB's fifth-best park for offense. This total should be double digits.

Ezequiel Tovar to Record a Run (+105)

Projected to hit second, Ezequiel Tovar gets a big boost from the southpaw.

Tovar's scuffled against righties all year, but lefties have been much kinder as he sports a 1.037 OPS and .250 ISO since returning from injury (17 PAs). He's got a sizzling 41.7% hard-hit rate in this time this year, too.

Even struggling to reach base at points, Tovar has recorded five runs in seven August tilts. Expecting the Rockies to contribute to the total, it would make sense he'd once again join in on the fun.

E-Rod has surrendered an .855 OPS to right-handed sticks all year, so I love Tovar's chance to not only reach base himself but come all the way around with Hunter Goodman, Jordan Beck, and Warming Bernabel all holding a .795 OPS or better against left-handers in the past month.

Boston Red Sox at San Diego Padres

Red Sox Under 3.5 Runs (-113)

In a stunner, the Boston Red Sox smashed former Red Sox hurler Nick Pivetta on Friday. I'm still fading this offense at MLB's fifth-friendliest park for pitchers against another good righty tonight.

That righty is Michael King, who has maintained his effectiveness (3.06 xERA) despite injuries plaguing his 2025 campaign. King has surrendered just 10 earned runs in his last seven starts.

Against righties, Beantown has posted just the 15th-best (tied) wRC+ in the past 30 days (101). King is especially tough on righties, allowing just a .185 average. Boston has six projected same-handed bats in the order.

All season, the San Diego Padres bullpen has been one of the best in baseball, and that's held true with a 3.64 xFIP in the past month, too. I expect a much quieter night for Boston's offense -- even if Lucas Giolito's hot streak continues in a duel with King.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.