3 Best Bets to Win the 2025 Arlington Million

Key Takeaways:

• Fort Washington (4-1) offers value with a strong closing kick, sharp form, and a promising stretch-out to 1¼ miles.
• Integration (8-5) drops in class from tougher Grade 1 fields and has the tactical speed to control this modest lineup.
• Mystik Dan (9-2), the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner, tries turf for the first time and could surprise if he handles the surface.

The Colonial Downs meet reaches its crescendo Saturday, August 9, with the Grade 1 Arlington Million. The 1 ¼-mile turf race, which was the world’s first million-dollar Thoroughbred race when it was first run in 1981 at Arlington Park, drew a field of eight. Seven are based in North America, but in keeping with a long tradition of international visitors, Cairo comes into the race after a tilt at Royal Ascot.

Cairo, most recently third in the Queen Anne (G1), may be coming out of the toughest last-out race, but he will not have an easy path to Grade 1 glory in Virginia. Veteran trainer Shug McGaughey sends out a sharp pair, recent Manhattan (G1) runner-up Integration as well as Fort Washington, last seen finishing a close fourth in the Wise Dan (G2). And, the race drew a Kentucky Derby winner—after a recent drill on the lawn at Saratoga, Kenny McPeek is sending Mystik Dan to the Arlington Million.

The Arlington Million is the 11th of 12 races on the Saturday card at Colonial Downs. It is one of seven stakes on the Colonial Downs Festival of Racing card. Three stakes on the turf course are graded—in addition to the Million, the card also features the Beverly D. Stakes (G2) and the Secretariat Stakes (G2). The card gets underway at noon Eastern Daylight Time, and post for the Arlington Million happens at 5:54 p.m. EDT.

These are the three best bets for the Arlington Million:

1. Fort Washington (2025 Arlington Million odds: 4-1)

Fort Washington may be the second-stringer from the Shug McGaughey barn in the Arlington Million, but he has plenty of credentials, and given the likely better price, he is the better bet in the race.

Though he was defeated in the Wise Dan (G2) last out at Churchill Downs, he was rallying well for fourth, beaten only 1 ¾ lengths in the end. The distance was on the shorter side for him, and more importantly, he was rallying into a slow pace. He should get something sharper to run at this time around, with top horses Time Song, Vesting, and Runaway Storm all likely to hit the gas early. He should also be able to handle it well if he has to deal with soft turf after rains during the week—Preakness week was a wet one this year, and he won the Dinner Party (G3) by a length two starts back.

Distance is a question, since he still has to prove himself at 1 ¼ miles. Though he was eighth the last time he stretched out past 1 ⅛ miles, he had early trouble in that 1 ⅜-mile United Nations and still rallied to finish less than four lengths behind a wire-to-wire winner. He is by War Front, a sire whose foals can be any kind, out of a mare who is half to winners at 1 5/16 and 1 ⅜ miles. In short, even as a six-year-old, Fort Washington has upside stretching out and trying 1 ¼ miles.

2. Integration (2025 Arlington Million odds: 8-5)

It sure would be nice to be able to take a complete stand against Integration. After all, as much as he has seemed on the cusp of being one of the top horses on turf for a couple of years now, he has continued to fall just short in Grade 1 company. He fell short by a head to Deterministic in the Manhattan (G1) at Saratoga last out, chased home second behind Carl Spackler in the Maker’s Mark Mile (G1) three back, and missed by a neck to Spirit of St Louis in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) four starts ago. He was even second last year in this race to Nations Pride.

The problem for anyone trying to rule Integration out completely is, however, that he can still win a race when he takes a drop in class. He rolled clear for a two-length score in the Red Smith (G2) last fall at Aqueduct, and romped over soft ground in the Million Preview at Colonial last year. And, though the Arlington Million is a Grade 1 race on paper, he isn’t facing anyone like Deterministic or Carl Spackler or Spirit of St Louis or Nations Pride here. He’s only facing one Grade 1 winner at all—and that’s Mystik Dan, the 2024 Kentucky Derby winner, who is trying grass for the first time.

In short, the Arlington Million is a marginal Grade 1 this year, as sad as that may be for horse racing history buffs. And—compared to overseas shipper Cairo, who just tends to finish second a lot in general—Integration remembers how to win when he is not facing proper Grade 1 foes. The price won’t be long, but with tactical speed from the outside and plenty of stamina to see out this trip, Integration may win anyway.

3. Mystik Dan (2025 Arlington Million odds: 9-2)

Though Kenny McPeek had been talking about working Mystik Dan on a turf course for a while, the turnaround between his first turf work on August 1 and entering in the Arlington Million was just a matter of days. However, McPeek has never shied away from taking a shot when it was time, and with Mystik Dan’s last race being the Stephen Foster (G1) on June 28, this was a perfectly logical time for a next race. And, for a Grade 1 race on the grass, this turned out with as modest a field as possible for the level—after all, Mystik Dan’s Kentucky Derby win is the only top-level score by anyone in the field.

The post position draw is not a worry for Mystik Dan, as he won both the Kentucky Derby last year and the Blame (G3) this year with a nifty rail run. If he can be as tactical on turf as he has been on dirt, he should be able to tuck in behind a contested front end, make a run, and get the jump on the midpack and closing types. Though jockey Brian Hernandez is more known for riding on dirt than turf, he has that rapport with Mystik Dan and should know how to give him the best trip for his running style. And, from a perspective of speed figures, if he can be as fast on turf as he has been on the dirt, his recent races make him downright tough.

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