5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 9/6/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

San Francisco Giants at St. Louis Cardinals

Under 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (-113)

To my surprise given two stalwarts of the last couple of decades, the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals have bottom-10 bullpens (by xFIP) in the past month. We'll play five and dive.

Justin Verlander's late-season renaissance meets a perfect foe to keep it going here. J.V. has a 3.92 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) over his last eight starts, including four spotless outings. St. Louis has the third-worst team OPS against righties in the past 30 days (.635), so if he's at the top of his game, another bagel could be on the agenda.

However, I also love this roster fit for Andre Pallante to escape his start clean. Pallante's 59.6% groundball rate has his SIERA in a good spot (4.30), and for all the Giants' recent success against righties, they're actually 27th in hard-hit rate against them (29.8%) over the past month. A contact pitcher is a much better matchup for them than a boom-or-bust proposition with all the homer threats.

At MLB's fifth-worst park for bombs, give me the under.

San Diego Padres at Colorado Rockies

Padres Over 6.5 Runs (-120)

Embarrassingly, the San Diego Padres were blanked at Coors Field last night. Kyle Freeland tossed eight scoreless.

Luckily for them, though, this is Coors Field and the Colorado Rockies, meaning another vulnerable target awaits. McCade Brown...come on down! You're the next contestant on "somehow didn't start over Antonio Senzatela this year".

In Brown's defense, the 25-year-old was just developing in the minors, and hopes were high given a 3.18 xFIP across 76.2 innings there this season. However, the MLB tenure has been painful thus far, amassing a 6.46 SIERA, paltry 12.5% K rate, and 90.5 % (!) contact rate.

Colorado's bullpen also has the second-worst SIERA in the past 30 days (4.13) when he departs. This is a pretty standard operating procedure for the 2025 Rockies; when the good moment happens, quickly zag back to the other side.

Ramon Laureano to Record 2+ Total Bases (-140)

The Friars also are putting their lineup in the best position to succeed now, as well.

Ramon Lauerano got a bump to the five hole because...he immensely deserved it? Since coming over from the Baltimore Orioles at the deadline, Laureano has an .806 OPS, .209 ISO, and 43.5% hard-hit rate in his worse split against righties like McCade Brown.

Brown's gigantic contact rate is a crooked number waiting to happen, but there are reasons to avoid the homer market with the righty. He's only allowed a barrel on 7.4% of balls in play, and he's given up "only" 1.17 HR/9 despite the nightmare start. After 0.72 HR/9 in the minors, he just seems to be a bases target -- especially with a 9.8% walk rate down there.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 2.43 median total bases from the outfielder tonight. We'd have set this line closer to -211.

Athletics at Los Angeles Angels

Over 8.5 Runs (-122)

The season's getting dim, but regression has nearly put Yusei Kikuchi right where I forecasted on August 4th calling him "one of the biggest regression candidates down the stretch".

After that date, Kikuchi has now allowed at least four earned runs in four of his last five starts, amassing a 4.61 SIERA but a 7.01 ERA in this unlucky stretch -- but that's the way the cookie crumbles for a pretty pedestrian hurler with massive flyball (41.3%) and hard-hit (42.2%) rates allowed.

However, he's probably a pitching edge today. J.T. Ginn represents the classic profile of a sinkerballer (51.8% groundball rate) that will make mistakes (11.1% barrel rate) and has been punished. Plus, the Athletics' bullpen is reeling, posting the fifth-worst bullpen SIERA (4.04) over the past 30 days.

This isn't Sutter Health Park, but Angel Stadium is MLB's eighth-friendliest park for offense. I'm surprised to not see a higher total with weak hurlers on the bump.

Jo Adell to Hit a Home Run (+300)

I shied away from Ginn's home run profile as to not bury the lead. At 0.32 median home runs, Jo Adell is our projections' favorite pick for a bomb today.

It checks out for me. Ginn has coughed up 2.02 HR/9 this season, and it's still be 1.13 HR/9 on the road when away from his Triple-A park in Sacramento. His flyball (36.2%) and hard-hit (37.2%) rates allowed to right-handed batters are both at least six percentage points higher than opposite-handed sticks. Unfortunately for him, this Los Angeles Angels lineup is loaded with righties like Adell.

The outfielder's breakout season has rolled on versus right-handers, totaling an .839 OPS, .310 ISO, 53.7% flyball rate, and 35.8% hard-hit rate against them in the past month. The loft is a particularly helpful dynamic against a guy like Ginn looking to keep the ball down.

Adell will look to add a 34th homer to his ledger on Saturday against a vulnerable target.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.