5 Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Saturday 7/12/25

In a given MLB slate, you've got tons of markets to dig through, from totals to home runs and strikeout props.

Which bets stand out for today's games?

Below, I'm going to run through my favorite bets in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can get additional insights from our daily MLB player prop projections.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise.

Today's Best MLB Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks

Cleveland Guardians at Chicago White Sox

Under 4.5 Runs in First 5 Innings (+100)

I'll side with the arms over the sticks in this AL Central battle of "eugh".

Between the Cleveland Guardians and Chicago White Sox, you're looking at two of the bottom-three MLB clubs in OPS against right-handed pitching over the last 30 days. The Pittsburgh Pirates are the other. That's enough conviction to believe that righties Tanner Bibee and Sean Burke, respectively, can navigate the order a time or two with success.

Bibee's 4.10 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is fine, and he's done a decent job limiting hard contact (38.9%) and barrels (8.9%). He's miraculously faced 6 of the top-10 team OPS marks versus right-handers in the last 30 days over each of his last six starts -- and still produced a 3.50 SIERA compared to a 5.29 ERA. He's pitching well.

Burke is a bit dicier as a 4.82 SIERA indicates, but he's got a 4.09 ERA and 4.01 SIERA since May 22nd, improving his opposing hard-hit rate (35.9%) significantly.

These clubs also have bottom-four reliever SIERAs over the past 30 days, so I can't trust the 'pens to bring the under home. The starters are solid, though.

New York Mets at Kansas City Royals

Royals Over 4.5 Runs (+102)

What could possibly go wrong backing a Kansas City Royals team scoring the fewest runs per game at home this season (3.02)?

K.C.'s .618 team OPS against right-handed pitching in the last month isn't ideal, either. However, favorable hitting weather paired with this elite opposing matchup should bring the Crowns closer to their ceiling offensively.

Frankie Montas of the New York Mets has been jaw-droppingly bad even if his 4.30 SIERA is a fan of the 14.0% swinging-strike rate. Montas' barrel (13.0%), hard-hit (43.5%), and groundball (39.1%) rate would all be 35th percentile or worse across MLB if he qualified.

A Mets fan will also tell you how poor their bullpen has performed of late, amassing MLB's third-worst SIERA over the past 30 days (4.13).

Michael Lorenzen and an equally inept Royals 'pen aren't the best bet themselves, but this line should be closer to New York's 5.5-run team total (+124).

Salvador Perez to Hit a Home Run (+480)

I'm a good friend. I'm not going to give you contact numbers like Montas' and not find a bomb prop, am I?

Salvador Perez is the look. Salvy has been smashing right-handed pitching to the tune of a 1.036 OPS, .343 ISO, 49.2% flyball rate, and 40.7% hard-hit rate in his last 75 plate appearances (PAs). Between a team-high six homers in this time and his name value as an All-Star, I have no idea how this line exists.

The catcher bats from the right side of the dish against Montas, who has coughed up an .870 OPS and 1.59 HR/9 to right-handed bats.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections expect 0.21 median bombs from Perez on Saturday, implying closer to +428 odds for one if correct.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Angels

Over 8.5 Runs (-122)

Stakes seem a bit high for July between these two clubs just clinging to their respective Wild Card races. Rather than a side, this seems like an over.

The Los Angeles Angels need to start getting some respect against right-handed pitching. They're ninth in OPS amidst the split in the last 30 days (.757) and have brought their K rate down to 23.9%. Zac Gallen's off year should be an organic match for the surging Halos as Gallen (4.74 xERA) has coughed up at least four earned in four of his last six starts.

Of course, the Arizona Diamondbacks rake in both splits, but their .811 OPS against southpaws like Yusei Kikuchi over the past month is especially impressive. Kikuchi might also be one of baseball's luckiest starters, turning a 4.16 SIERA into a 3.02 ERA despite contact issues. That's thanks to a tiny 9.9% homer-to-flyball ratio (HR:FB).

As both of these teams' bullpens rank in the bottom 10 SIERAs over the past month, offense should be on the menu at MLB's ninth-friendliest park for hitters.

Jo Adell to Hit a Home Run (+390)

L.A.'s outburst against righties can pretty exclusively be tossed on Jo Adell's shoulders.

The former top prospect has finally put the pieces together. He's swatted 4 bombs over his 88 PAs against righties in the past month, accumulating a positive .733 OPS, .179 ISO, 37.9% flyball rate, and 37.9% hard-hit rate in this time.

Gallen's long ball issues are fairly pronounced, too. He's ceded 1.76 HR/9 to same-handed bats with flyball (39.0%) and hard-hit (38.7%) to prove it is no fluke. How about nine home runs permitted in those aforementioned last six starts? Yikes.

Our projections love Adell in this spot. At 0.34 median home runs, he's today's fourth-most likely hitter to go yard. We'd set him closer to +247 for a big fly.

Get one month of MLB.TV on us! FanDuel customers can now place any $5 bet on MLB and unlock a full month of MLB.TV — regardless if your bet wins or loses. See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Which MLB bets stand out to you today? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest MLB betting odds to see the full menu of options.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.