2 Best MLB Bets and Player Props for Phillies at Padres on Saturday 7/12/25

Even within a single MLB game, you've got countless betting markets to choose from.

Which ones stand out today as the Philadelphia Phillies take on the San Diego Padres?

This rematch of the 2022 NLCS went the Friars' way with a 4-2 victory on Friday. Can San Diego make it two in a row against one of the NL's best pitchers, or will Philadelphia's ace do his job as the stopper?

We're going to run through my favorites in FanDuel Sportsbook's MLB betting odds. You can also check out FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections if you want a glimpse at projected strikeouts, home runs, and more.

Now, let's dig into the best bets for this game.

Betting Picks for Phillies at Padres

Phillies -0.5 in First 5 Innings (-140)

As is always a good practice for a responsible gamer, I'd shop this number at sportsbooks in your area. The variance of this line on some popular options is pretty wild.

Nonetheless, the Phils seem like a quality bet to be ahead after five even if their bullpen's 3.93 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA) is ninth-worst in baseball over the past 30 days. Zack Wheeler is quite the advantage.

Wheeler's 2.58 SIERA and 33.6% strikeout rate have him among the NL Cy Young odds-on favorites. This won't be the right-hander's stiffest test if San Diego's .674 team OPS over the past 30 days (26th in MLB) is any indication.

It's tough to say how Yu Darvish fares on the other side of this one. Darvish is making just his second start of the season, posting 3.2 innings and 63 pitches deep on Monday. He surrendered two earned, struck out five, and walked three.

With Wheeler live to blank the Friars over the first five, I'll bet the Phillies to scratch across at least a run. Their .757 OPS versus orthodox hurlers in the past month is pretty sporty.

J.T. Realmuto to Hit a Single (+105)

Well, if J.T. Realmuto is -170 to record a hit in this game, it's overwhelmingly likely to be just a one-bagger.

Darvish didn't allow a barrel in his season debut, and the righty hasn't ever surrendered a barrel rate north of 9.0%. It's hard to tattoo one against him.

Plus, the catcher has been a singles machine of late against right-handed pitching. In his last 66 plate appearances (PAs), Realmuto has 21 hits. 17 of them were singles. There's not much luck involved when his groundball rate is 50.0% and lacks the loft needed for extra bases. Plus, he's walked just 4.5% of the time in this sample.

FanDuel Research's MLB player prop projections forecast only 1.15 hits for Realmuto, but 0.74 of them are singles. At that median projection, we'd have set him closer to -110 in this market.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.