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4 NFL DFS Matchups to Target in Week 7

Kenyatta Storin
Kenyatta Storin@KenyattaStorin

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4 NFL DFS Matchups to Target in Week 7

When playing NFL DFS on FanDuel, we have to factor in matchups when rostering players. A running back who was a superb play one week might be a poor play the next week.

This article will help identify the best matchups to target on a given main slate. Which matchups stand out this week?

All betting odds come from the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published. We'll reference our NFL DFS projections.

NFL DFS Matchups to Target for Week 7

Kyren Williams vs. Raiders Rush Defense

Kyren Williams ($8,600) has one of the highest salaries at running back, but he's worth setting aside cap space for against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Everything is lining up for Williams versus the Raiders. For starters, he's enjoyed a rock-solid workload despite often playing in negative game scripts for the 1-4 Los Angeles Rams, averaging 25 adjusted opportunities (carries plus 2x targets) with an 85.0% snap rate. He's also seeing a league-best 81.8% red zone rush share, and even if we include targets, he boasts one of the best overall red zone opportunity shares (55.9%).

Williams should be able to take advantage of what's likely the best game script he's seen all year. Las Vegas has waved the white flag after trading away Davante Adams, and we've seen the spread rise in favor of the Rams, who are now 6.5-point home favorites.

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Oct 20 8:05pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Finally, the Raiders' defense checks yet another box. According to numberFire's metrics, Las Vegas ranks 24th in schedule-adjusted rush defense, and they've allowed the 9th-most FanDuel points per game to RBs. They're also giving up the most rushing yards over expected per attempt to the position (1.59), per NFL Next Gen Stats.

Even with Kyren's salary, he's still popping in our NFL DFS projections as the best point-per-dollar value at running back.

Diontae Johnson vs. Commanders Pass Defense

The Washington Commanders have the slate's highest implied team total (30.0) as 8.5-point home favorites over the lowly Carolina Panthers, and as is always the case with the Commanders, the over/under has shootout potential (51.5) regardless of the opponent.

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Oct 20 8:05pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

It goes without saying that we'll want exposure to this Washington offense, and it doesn't hurt that Diontae Johnson ($7,100) provides us with an ideal bring-back option for game stacks.

We've been attacking this Commanders defense pretty much from the start, and while their rush D is around league average now, their adjusted pass defense still sits at just 29th. Against opposing wideouts, Washington has allowed the fifth-most FanDuel points per game and the most FanDuel points per target.

While Andy Dalton's play has tapered off since he blew up for 300+ yards and 3 TDs in Week 3 versus Vegas, this is one of the weakest defenses he's faced this season, so we shouldn't rule out a strong performance.

That would open the door for a spike week from Diontae. Since Dalton took over as quarterback, Johnson has soaked up a 29.5% target share, 46.0% air yards share, and 34.8% red zone target share over four games. He's logged double-digit targets in three of them, scoring 25.2, 17.8, and 16.8 FanDuel points. His lone clunker in that sample (4.4 points) came against a Chicago Bears defense that ranks first in adjusted pass defense, so we should see an output closer to those other three instances.

Johnson also projects well in our model as a top point-per-dollar value at WR.

Geno Smith vs. Falcons Pass Defense

Geno Smith ($7,600) leads the league in both passing yardage and attempts, averaging 296.3 yards and 41.8 attempts per game. And yet, he's thrown exactly one touchdown in all six of his games, sitting tied for 19th in the category and leaving him with the third-worst touchdown rate (2.4%) among qualified players.

Positive touchdown regression should come for Smith in a Seattle Seahawks offense that ranks first in pass rate over expectation, and this is a perfect matchup for him to hit his ceiling against the Atlanta Falcons.

This Seattle-Atlanta matchup is one of three with a 50+ over/under, but what is especially enticing about this one's fantasy potential is that it ranks first in pace and second in pass rate this week, per our Brandon Gdula.

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Oct 20 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

That should already have us excited about Geno from a volume perspective, but he will also benefit from facing a defense that generates very little pressure. The Falcons rank last in sacks this year (5) and are generating a league-worst 23.0% QB pressure rate, per NFL Next Gen Stats. They also have the third-worst PFF pass rush grade.

Smith comes in at just the 10th-highest quarterback salary, too, making it easier to stack him with D.K. Metcalf ($8,100) or Kenneth Walker III ($7,500).

Metcalf is coming off a pair of down games but is averaging 9.0 targets per game and can rack up fantasy points in bunches behind a 40.8% air yards share. Walker has averaged 24.8 adjusted opportunities across four healthy games, which includes a consistent role in the passing game (14.5% target share). Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,100) and Tyler Lockett ($5,800) are the clear No. 2 and No. 3 wideouts who can provide a bit more salary relief when needed, as well.

We also shouldn't forget that while Smith hasn't been a complete zero as a runner this season, adding 30 or more rushing yards in three games.

Tank Dell vs. Packers Pass Defense

This Houston Texans-Green Bay Packers matchup features a pair of above-average adjusted defenses and doesn't pop from a pace perspective, but there's enough firepower on both sides to prop this game up to a 47.5-point total.

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Oct 20 5:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

With that in mind, there's still a reasonable chance we get a high-scoring game between these two squads, and Houston's passing attack has a condensed target tree with Nico Collins sidelined, as Stefon Diggs ($8,600), Tank Dell ($7,000), and Dalton Schultz ($5,200) hogged 24 of 31 targets in Week 6 (77.4%).

But Dell is particularly enticing at his mid-range salary. He led the trio in route rate (88.6%) and target share (29.0%), and while Diggs earned the higher air yards share (39.2% to 27.2%), Dell still saw 4 downfield targets (10-plus yards) compared to Diggs' 5 downfield looks.

The Packers aren't an elite adjusted pass defense (12th), and they've allowed the 13th-most FanDuel points per target to wideouts, so this isn't a matchup to shy away from for Dell.

We've yet to see Tank hit his ceiling this season, but his usage suggests it's coming sooner rather than later, and he's a potential wide receiver breakout candidate in Week 7.


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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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