There are a lot of ways to value NFL players for fantasy football.

Of course, how many fantasy points they score is paramount, and no amount of regression analysis or film grinding will ever change that.

However, players can overperform and underperform in certain games and timeframes, and it's important to find some sort of balance.

Is a receiver coming off of a six-target, two-touchdown game? He's probably someone we should expect to take a step back in the production department. But what if he's slotted into an elite matchup with a high game over/under?

Or if a wideout leads the league in unrealized air yards (basically a lot of high-leverage targets without as many catches as he should have), he's easy to pinpoint as a breakout candidate. But what if he's outdoors in heavy winds against a top-tier pass D? Maybe next week is his week.

For that reason, I assembled a three-tier breakout model for wide receivers.

The Breakout Score model accounts for three key things:

1. Expected Fantasy Points: Based on things like targets, air yards, red zone targets, and end zone targets, we can assign a value to a player's actual workload.
2. Game Environment: By combining some key variables such as opposing pass defense, wind, game total, and more, we can see who is in a spot actually primed for a breakout.
3. Weekly Volume Projections: Sometimes, a player gets a lot of extra volume and high-leverage looks but is in line for a role reduction with a starter returning. We can help account for that by relying on numberFire's fantasy football projections and projected rushing and target volume.

With all that out of the way, let's dig in.

Note: All NFL odds via FanDuel Sportsbook.

Week 7 Buy Low Wide Receiver Targets

Here are the top candidates whose Breakout Score is noticeably higher than their actual FanDuel points per game output over their last five games leading into Week 7.

Let's highlight a few names.

Jerry Jeudy

It's not hard to understand why Jerry Jeudy makes the list, as Amari Cooper is vacating a 27.3% target share in the Cleveland Browns' offense.

But it's not like Jeudy has been totally irrelevant to this point.

He's got his own 18.6% target share and 33.4% air yards share. In fact, Jeudy has averaged as many downfield (10-plus yards) targets (3.5) as Cooper and is really the main option in the offense who earns downfield looks other than Cooper.

Jeudy also quietly had a 31.3% red zone target share and a 50.0% end zone target share in this offense -- a much better red zone role than Cooper.

This week, the Browns have a low-end implied team total but face the league's 22nd-ranked adjusted pass defense (per numberFire).

Brandon Aiyuk

Brandon Aiyuk continues to stand out on this list because he has a great workload but primarily because he hasn't scored yet.

He has no touchdowns despite eight combined near touchdowns (plays where he was tackled inside the five or incomplete end zone targets). That ties for a league-high on close calls.

No wideout has a larger touchdown gap between his actual output (0) and his expected TDs (xTD, via my model) than Aiyuk (-2.1).

Aiyuk -- in games with Deebo Samuel and George Kittle -- is third on the team in target share (20.7%) but first in air yards share (29.6%) and first in weighted target share (24.1%, a personal metric of mine that accounts for added value on downfield and red zone targets).

The Kansas City Chiefs are a middling 17th in adjusted pass defense this season and 26th in aDOT (average depth of target) allowed to wide receivers.

Tank Dell

Tank Dell is another common name on the list. He has just one touchdown this season, but last week -- in a full week of prep without Nico Collins, Dell ran 31 routes (88.6%) to lead the team in route rate. That was his highest route rate of the year.

He also saw his highest target share of the season: 29.0%. He hasn't surpassed 62 yards yet this season, so things are still frustrating, but Dell is certainly someone on the fringe of a lot of starting lineups.

Dell is going outdoors (albeit in low winds) to face a Green Bay Packers pass defense that ranks 12th in adjusted pass defense. That's not enough to downgrade his matchup.

Green Bay is 25th in aDOT allowed to opposing WRs; Dell had 4 downfield targets a week ago.

Tyreek Hill
Jaylen Waddle

No, the expectations here aren't as high as they could be, but there are still reasons to be into Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle with Tyler Huntley under center.

In two games with Huntley, Hill has averaged 8.5 targets but just 55.5 scrimmage yards per game. Waddle's numbers are 7.0 and 41.0, respectively.

Those target shares, though, work out to 32.7% for Hill and 26.9% for Waddle in a very concentrated passing offense.

Hill still has seen 10 downfield targets in this two-game split -- plus 4 total end zone targets.

Waddle has had 5 downfield looks and 2 red zone targets.

This week, the Miami Dolphins are indoors against a Indianapolis Colts pass defense that ranks 26th in adjusted efficiency, via numberFire.

The Colts also let up the third-highest average depth of target in the league to opposing WRs and are 27th in yards per target allowed on downfield throws.

Ladd McConkey

Ladd McConkey and the Los Angeles Chargers play on Monday night at the Arizona Cardinals, who rank 28th in adjusted pass defense. Arizona also sits 30th in yards per route run and catch rate over expectation allowed to opposing wide receivers.

McConkey's offense does rank last in the league in pass attempts (25.4), which does cap his upside.

But McConkey has led or tied for a team high in routes in three straight games and has had at least a 21.1% target share in every single game this year.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.