4 MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Thursday 10/17/24
Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.
From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.
Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.
Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props
New York Yankees at Cleveland Guardians
Gleyber Torres to Record a Run (-115)
Out of the leadoff spot, Gleyber Torres has been seeing the ball pretty well for the New York Yankees this postseason -- especially in the series versus the Cleveland Guardians. Through the first two games of the series, Torres has gone 4-for-9 with a double, 3 runs, and a walk.
Matt Boyd is projected to start for the Guardians on Thursday, and Torres has produced better numbers against lefties than righties in 2024. Versus southpaws, Torres is posting a .353 wOBA, 132 wRC+, and .190 ISO, compared to a .299 wOBA, 94 wRC+, and .098 ISO when facing right-handed pitching.
Up to this point in the playoffs, Torres is registering an impressive .407 wOBA, 170 wRC+, and .208 ISO. Across New York's six postseason games thus far, Torres has scored at least one run in five of them.
Hitting ahead of Juan Soto, Aaron Judge, and Giancarlo Stanton undoubtedly improves Torres' chances of crossing home plate on Thursday.
Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets
Over 7.0 Runs (-118)
Entering Thursday's crucial Game 4 between the Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Mets, it will be Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Jose Quintana on the mound. Yamamoto looked better his last time out versus the San Diego Padres as he tossed five shutout innings, but he surrendered a total of 11 runs in his previous three starts -- including five runs allowed in his first start in the postseason against the Padres.
This is close to a must-win game for the Mets, and they've continued to come up with clutch performances when they need it the most throughout the playoffs. While New York has put up zero runs in two of the first three games of the series, there has been eight-plus total runs scored in all three contests.
As for Quintana, he's been great lately, giving up a combined two earned runs across his first three starts in the playoffs. That being said, he's walked multiple batters in two of those three outings, and the Dodgers are heating up at the plate in this series.
Even though one team has done most of the heavy lifting in this series, I'll back the over to hit for the fourth consecutive game.
Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets
Giancarlo Stanton to Hit a Home Run (+300)
Not many players are hitting the ball better -- and harder -- than Giancarlo Stanton right now. After going 0-4 in Game 1 against the Kansas City Royals last round, Stanton has since gone a combined 7-for-19 with 2 home runs, 5 RBIs, 3 runs, and 2 walks this postseason.
With six playoff games under his belt this year, Stanton is sporting the 17th-best wOBA (.425), 18th-best wRC+ (184), and 10th-best ISO (.348) among players who have played in the postseason. In addition to that, Stanton is logging a fantastic 19.0% barrel rate and 76.2% hard-hit rate with a 52.4% flyball rate in the playoffs, so he's hitting the ball hard and in the air.
Considering that Boyd hasn't pitched into the fifth inning in his last five appearances, it's worth noting that Cleveland's bullpen has surrendered a 51.7% flyball rate and 10.3% barrel rate in this year's playoff run.
Teoscar Hernandez to Hit a Home Run (+520)
It has been a rough start to the series for Teoscar Hernandez against the Mets, with him going 0-for-11 in the first three games of the series, though he's also drawn four walks and scored two runs. Despite his forgettable performances thus far in the series, Hernandez excels against left-handed pitchers, which puts him in a good spot with Quintana on the mound.
Besides hitting two homers during last round versus the Padres, Hernandez led the Dodgers in wOBA (.391), wRC+ (154), and ISO (.284) when facing lefties during the season. There's also splits involving Quintana that lead me to believe that Hernandez could be in store for a productive outing.
Throughout the 2024 campaign, Quintana is recording a 1.80 HR/9 and 42.2% flyball rate versus righties at home, compared to a 0.40 HR/9 and 32.5% flyball rate against righties on the road. Quintana has struggled to keep the ball in the yard at Citi Field, and the Mets' bullpen is permitting an 11.6% barrel rate and 19.4% HR/FB rate in the postseason.
Postseason baseball is in full swing! All customers get a 30% Profit Boost Token to use on either MLB playoff game happening October 17th! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.
Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!
The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.