Whether it's due to the new kickoff rules, penalty enforcement, quarterback play, or something else, scoring has been up across the NFL this year.

Through Week 14, the average game has featured 45.5 points. That's up from 43.4 through Week 14 last year, which makes a huge difference for betting totals.

Personally, I think this is pretty sticky, given all the dynamics at play, and I've made tweaks to my totals model to account for this.

Despite that, my Week 15 NFL predictions are still way off market on a pair of totals where I'm showing value on the over. It's on a pair of stud quarterbacks facing poor defenses. They may need to do the heavy lifting themselves, but I do think the market is too low on the games as a whole.

Let's start things off there and then dive into other bets I like in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds.

NFL Week 15 Betting Picks and Predictions

Commanders at Saints

Alternate Total Over 46.5 Points (+138)

I've got big downgrades on the New Orleans Saints' offense without Derek Carr and other key playmakers. But putting this Washington Commanders offense indoors off a bye against a leaky defense is tough to pass up, pushing me toward being aggressive in targeting an alt market.

A lot of this is about the Saints' defense. They haven't had Marshon Lattimore (who could debut for the Commanders in an insta-revenge game this week) since Week 8. In that span, they've let up 0.08 Adjusted Defensive Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per play. If you omit last week against Drew Lock, that balloons to 0.16, the 26th-ranked mark in this span.

That struggling unit will go up against a Commanders offense that sits fourth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings for the season. They've struggled a bit of late, but they just had their bye to get Jayden Daniels healthy, and he averaged 0.35 Passing NEP per drop back in Week 13. I don't want to get too caught up in narratives about Kliff Kingsbury-led offenses lagging in the second half.

Betting the full-game over (rather than the Commanders' team total) does make us somewhat dependent on a Saints offense led by either Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler, but their implied total right now is just 18.25. We're not asking a ton out of them, and the Commanders' defense -- even if Lattimore debuts -- isn't elite. I think there's enough upside here to justify taking an alt over where we still get a win on a key number of 47.

Ravens at Giants

Total Over 43.5 (-105)

The Saints' implied total was low. The New York Giants' is even lower at 14.5. Again, we don't need much push here for this game to go over, allowing me to project more points than expected.

Obviously, most of that faith comes from the Baltimore Ravens. They've scored 40 points by themselves 3 times, and they've hit 30 in 4 others. That's why they're numberFire's league-leading offense thus far.

They'll go up against a Giants defense that sits 18th in numberFire's rankings, but that sample has mostly come with Dexter Lawrence on the field. With Lawrence now done for the season, this could be a bottom-five unit the rest of the way.

As for the other side of the ball, the Ravens' secondary is still trying to gel, and the Giants have at least some playmakers offensively. I don't want the alt total here because I think the odds the Ravens' defense dominates are higher than the Commanders', but the same general enthusiasm toward the over applies with such a low total.

Buccaneers at Chargers

Buccaneers' Moneyline (+130)

This is the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' 14th game of the season. My model has shown value in their moneyline 11 times already, and Week 15 will push that number to 12. Clearly, I'm just higher on the Bucs than market.

But with how well they've played, I'm fully okay with that, and I'm willing to back them against the Los Angeles Chargers.

For the full season, the Bucs are numberFire's fifth-ranked offense while the Chargers are 15th. If you narrow it down to just the games since Chris Godwin's injury, the Bucs are still averaging 0.13 Adjusted NEP per play on offense, well clear of the Chargers' full-season mark of 0.07.

The Bucs' defense will get a downgrade here with Antoine Winfield Jr. sidelined, and he's good enough where that matters a lot. It's fair to question whether the Chargers can exploit that, though, given the list of injuries on their offense is also pretty significant.

Because of the offensive gap between the two, I've got this game much close to the toss-up with the Bucs as slight favorites. They've been kind to me thus far when backing them, and I agree with the model that the Bucs are still undervalued in the market.

Bears at Vikings

Vikings -7 (-102)

To their credit, the Chicago Bears have definitely been better since Thomas Brown started calling plays. I just haven't seen enough progress for me to lay off the Minnesota Vikings at home.

We've got a three-game sample with Brown at the helm. In those, the Bears' Adjusted NEP per play is 0.05. That's much better than their mark of 0.00 under Shane Waldron, and one of those games came against this very same defense.

Even that, though, falls well short of the Vikings' full-season mark of 0.11, which rises to 0.15 in games since T.J. Hockenson returned. This offense is humming right now, as evidenced by its 42-point outburst last week.

The Vikings are also the better defense in this one, sitting second there for the full season while the Bears are 13th.

The big question is whether you want to lay the full 7 points at -102 or go with -6.5 at -115.

My model has the Vikings favored by 9.9 points. Teams roughly in that range have covered a 6.5-point spread 56.8% of the time, and they've covered -7 at a 50.0% clip (meaning they've pushed on 7 in 6.8% of games). Thus, your expected ROI -- if we take these numbers as gospel -- would be slightly higher on laying the 6.5. But the gap is small (5.8% versus 6.2%), so it's a spot where you can pick your preferred route and feel good either way.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.