3 Best College Basketball Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 12/11/24
College basketball is back, giving us plentiful betting options with so many teams in action each day.
Fortunately, we have abundant tools available that can aid our chances of finding good betting value. Bart Torvik and KenPom are excellent sources that give insights into team-level efficiency, and Sports Reference provides a wide range of useful team stats, as well.
Let's check out FanDuel Sportsbook's college basketball odds and select some of the best bets of the day by utilizing the mentioned tools.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
Today's Best College Basketball Picks
Bryant Bulldogs at St. John's Red Storm
Bryant +23.5 (-106)
St. John's is a heavy favorite in this one, but Bryant might be able to stay just competitive enough to cover the lofty spread.
While Bart Torvik's rankings have a sizable gap between the Red Storm (13th) and Bulldogs (145th), the latter is a still a middle-of-the-pack team rather than being one of the nation's basement dwellers. Bryant hovers near the country's average in both adjusted offensive efficiency (153rd) and defensive efficiency (158th).
But the Bulldogs do stand out in some areas, most notably playing at a fast pace and ranking seventh overall in adjusted tempo. They're also 55th in offensive rebounding rate, giving them the ability to generate second-chance points.
Bryant is also 45th in three-point percentage, yet curiously shoot them at low rate (306th). We did just see them rain down 45 threes in their last game, and while that was against a Division III opponent, it shows a willingness to dial up the threes when the opportunity presents itself. St. John's is roughly average in three-point rate allowed, so Bryant should at least shoot from beyond the arc at their usual clip.
Spread Betting
This is a significant step up in competition for Bryant, so an upset is highly unlikely, but they might be able to hang in there for a bit, particularly if they take more threes.
Bart Torvik projects the Red Storm to win by 21 while Massey Ratings has the margin of victory at 19 points. numberFire's game projections are especially bullish on Bryant covering, giving them a 70.3% likelihood.
Fairleigh Dickinson Knights at Villanova Wildcats
Under 150.5 Points (-110)
Given that Fairleigh Dickinson ranks as one of the worst teams on Bart Torvik (334th), it's fair to expect Villanova (46th) rolls in this one.
However, the spread is set at 28.5 points, which is a high bar because the Wildcats play at a snail's pace, coming in at 338th in adjusted tempo. Therefore, taking a swing at the under is intriguing.
Total Points
Given that Fairleigh Dickinson is 354th in adjusted defense, the main fear is that Villanova runs up the score, and a quick look at their game log shows they've scored 90+ points three times. An output like that would certainly put the under in danger.
But if we look closer at those games, we see the Wildcats hit 47.8%, 60.0%, and 63.3% of their threes, something we shouldn't expect to happen very often, even for a team that's sixth in three-point percentage (41.5%).
Further, if there's one area the Knights are actually decent defensively, it's at suppressing three-pointers, as they're 66th in three-point rate allowed.
Villanova is also 322nd in free throw rate, so they shouldn't get to the line very often tonight.
numberFire is pretty firmly behind the under, projecting it to hit 66.6% of the time.
Colgate Raiders at No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats
Under 155.5 Points (-105)
This is a pretty clear mismatch between a top-10 team and one that's in the midst of it's second four-game losing streak. Per Bart Torvik's rankings, the 8-1 Wildcats come in as the nation's 8th-best squad while the 2-8 Raiders sit 283rd.
That being said, this game's 32.5-point spread is rather steep, so the under once again might be the way to go.
For starters, the Raiders will almost certainly try to slow this game down. Kentucky owns the 9th-fastest adjusted tempo while Colgate is 290th, and the latter's matchups have gone over this line just once in 10 games.
Compounding all this is that while Kentucky is stout on defense, they're just 317th in defensive turnover rate, which should help Colgate dictate the pace of play.
Additionally, the Raiders rely on the three-ball (54th in three-point rate) yet don't shoot them particularly well (212th in three-point percentage), which could lead to a good share of empty possessions. They also don't get to the foul line very often, ranking 363rd out of 364 teams in free-throw rate, so they won't get many easy points that way, either.
Total Points
Ultimately, Kentucky should cruise to an easy win, but Colgate's play style should keep overall scoring down relative to what we're used to seeing in Kentucky matchups. All of Bart Torvik, Massey Ratings, and numberFire project this game to go under 155.5 points.
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Which bets stand out to you across the nation tonight? Check out FanDuel Sportsbook's latest college basketball betting odds to see the full menu of options.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.