4 Best NFL Bets and Predictions for the AFC and NFC Conference Championship Games

With just two games on the menu this weekend, there was a chance we were scraping for value in the NFL.

Instead, my model is showing value in both totals and a side in each game.

What could go wrong?

Let's dig into FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds for this weekend and outline which bets I like based on my model's NFL Conference Championship spread and total predictions.

NFC Conference Championship Game Betting Picks: Commanders at Eagles

Commanders +6.5 (-120)

Back when this spread was at 5.5, I had a preference for betting the Washington Commanders' moneyline. Now that the Philadelphia Eagles are out to 6.5-point favorites, I don't mind the safety in taking the points.

My model has the Eagles favored by 3.61 points in this one. There are 117 instances in my model's history where teams have been underdogs by roughly as much as the Commanders. Those teams have covered a 5.5-point spread 59.8% of the time, which isn't bad. That increases to 65.0% at 6.5, a big enough jump to justify patience.

The reason the model is on the Commanders overall comes down to their offense. They enter the Conference Championship fourth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings. That's a bit ahead of the Eagles, who are sixth.

The Eagles' defense -- plus homefield advantage -- is why my model has them favored. But getting 6.5 points with someone as electric as Jayden Daniels is tough to turn down, no matter whom he's facing.

Commanders at Eagles Total Over 47.5 (-110)

We know the Commanders' defense will let up points. We saw some leakiness out of the Eagles in the Divisional Round, too, which helps put me on the over.

Even as an indoor team playing on the road in snow, the Los Angeles Rams finished that loss averaging 0.13 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) on early downs. The league average was 0.11. That's still a downgrade from the Rams' baseline mark, but it wasn't the same dominant Eagles defense we saw prior to Nakobe Dean's season-ending knee injury.

The Rams also moved the ball on the ground as Kyren Williams had a 47.4% Rushing Success Rate, a good bit above the league average. With the Commanders' ground game showing life again last week, it's a concern.

Thus, I think both offenses will move the ball here, and the model agrees. It puts this total at 50.8, high enough for me to lay -110 on the over.

AFC Conference Championship Game Betting Picks: Bills at Chiefs

Bills' Moneyline (+108)

Betting against The Boogeyman in the playoffs ain't fun. I do think it's the right move here, though.

This is more of a bet on the Buffalo Bills than against the Kansas City Chiefs. As they have shown thus far in the playoffs, the Bills have multiple routes to beating you. They are third in numberFire's schedule-adjusted passing offense rankings, and they're second on the ground. It's tough to make them play left-handed when they're lethal in both categories.

I'm also still skeptical of the Chiefs' defense. They're just 19th against the pass and 16th against the rush, and the unit didn't take big steps forward last week even with corner Jaylen Watson back in action.

My model makes the Bills slight favorites here, meaning the plus money on them to win is a solid value.

Bills at Chiefs Total Over 47.5 (-110)

You'll notice that the thoughts on the Bills' moneyline didn't make mention of the Chiefs' offense. That's because they've been pretty efficient recently. If you want to avoid betting against Playoff Patrick Mahomes, this is your best route.

When looking at the Chiefs' offense, you have to omit a lot of early-season data. An offense with JuJu Smith-Schuster as the top pass-catcher is not a serious team.

From Week 8 to Week 17 -- after DeAndre Hopkins made his debut -- the Chiefs averaged 0.15 Adjusted NEP per play. This would have been tied with the Eagles for sixth-best if it were their full-season number.

If you look at just the three games with Marquise Brown, the Chiefs averaged 0.20 NEP per play, which would be right in line with the Bills' full-season mark. It's a small sample, so I can't project them quite that high, but it's clear that they can still get the job done when you give Mahomes something at receiver.

Combined with my enthusiasm for the Bills' offense -- and wind speeds at just 3 miles per hour -- I've got this total at 52.0. I wouldn't be shocked if we get another classic out of these two teams, featuring plentiful points on both sides.

You can also click here to check out our updated 2024-25 printable NFL playoff bracket.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.