NFL Conference Championships Spread and Total Predictions

In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.

Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about this week's AFC and NFC Conference Championship Games.

As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.

The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.

Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.

NFC and AFC Conference Championship Game Predictions

Commanders at Eagles Prediction

Spread Prediction: Eagles -3.6

Total Prediction: 51.0

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I am showing a bit of value on the Washington Commanders' moneyline against the Philadelphia Eagles. It's enough where I'd be willing to take it, personally, though it depends on your risk tolerance. As for the spread, I'd rather wait and see if we get a 6 or 6.5 to pop later in the week before investing there.

I do show value in the over, as well, and I feel more firm in that given how well both offenses performed during their Divisional Round wins.

Bills at Chiefs Prediction

Spread Prediction: Bills -0.8

Total Prediction: 51.5

Betting Odds

Thoughts: I'm willing to bet the Buffalo Bills to win at plus money here, given that we still haven't seen explosiveness out of the Kansas City Chiefs all season long. They'll likely need that in this matchup.

Despite the Chiefs' inconsistencies on offense, I am also showing value in the over here. That bit me in the Chiefs' Divisional Round win, but I do think they can do something if pushed. Buffalo is more likely to provide that than the Houston Texans were.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.