4 Best Bets for NFL Week 2

Week 2 is a prime time to bet against narratives in the NFL.

Because Week 1 is all the data we've got, it's going to have an outsized influence on peoples' perceptions of teams. If those perceptions lead them to the betting window, we can find some value in snagging the other side.

I think we've got a couple of spots that fit this bill in Week 2's NFL betting odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. And while I can understand why things set up the way they do, that doesn't mean I agree with it.

Let's dig into those and outline my favorite bets for this upcoming slate of games.

NFL Week 2 Betting Picks

Rams at Cardinals

Rams' Moneyline (+102)

Here, there's no doubt about why the market is where it's at. The Los Angeles Rams lost Puka Nacua in the opener, and they've got cluster injuries along the offensive line.

I just think the market has moved too far in accounting for those absences.

The Rams played the entire second half Sunday without Nacua, and the line injuries started to mount before that, as well. Matthew Stafford still averaged 0.47 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP -- numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. That's an MVP-level number. It was across just 23 throws, but buddy was shredding even with a depleted roster around him.

That's why -- even when I input a sizable downgrade for all the injuries -- my model still has the Rams favored here on the road.

The Arizona Cardinals played well in their opener, keeping things tight for all four quarters against the Buffalo Bills. But they still got torched both on the ground and through the air, meaning preseason concerns about the defense were legit.

So, given the injuries, I can understand why the market has the Cardinals favored. I just don't agree with it. With Stafford and Cooper Kupp both healthy, the Rams have enough pieces to get the job done here.

Saints at Cowboys

Saints +6.5 (-110)

The Dallas Cowboys were good to us in Week 1, cashing moneyline tickets at +120. We salute them for their service.

But it's time to back the other side.

The New Orleans Saints were prime candidates to be the team to which everyone overreacts. They lit up the Carolina Panthers, 47-10, showing no mercy against a lesser team.

And yet, this spread has lengthened to -6.5 from -6 on the lookahead line. Part of that is because the Cowboys also won in impressive fashion, but we're clearly not paying a tax here for New Orleans' big win.

Derek Carr lit it up in his first game with Klint Kubiak as OC, averaging 0.50 Passing NEP per drop back and holding a 16.3% completion percentage over expectation (CPOE), according to Next-Gen Stats. The team used play action on 36.0% of Carr's drop backs, up from 13.9% last year. They gave him more easy buttons, and he took advantage.

Part of that is due to the team the Saints faced, and Micah Parsons and the Cowboys will be a stiffer test for the Saints' unproven tackles. But I don't think all of what the Saints did in Week 1 can be written off, pushing me to back them and take the points.

Commanders at Giants

Total Under 44.5 Points (-115)

Both these defenses looked like pure, unfiltered booty in Week 1. That's why this total is so high.

But offense matters, too, and it's hard to expect a ton out of either side.

Jayden Daniels showed his elite athleticism on Sunday, rushing for 88 yards and 2 touchdowns, and his passing metrics were fully acceptable for a guy making his NFL debut. But scrambles and rush attempts keep the clock moving, and the Washington Commanders threw on early downs just 46.8% of the time despite a massively negative game script.

You know how things went for Daniel Jones, whose New York Giants put up just six points in the opener.

As a result, my model puts this total at just 40.2 points. Totals within one point of that in the model have gone under 44.5 points 65.0% of the time. Thus, as scary as it is to root against points with these two defenses on the field, I do think it's the proper view.

Falcons at Eagles

Total Under 47.5 Points (-115)

What could be more fun than closing out the week by cringing at every yard gained on Monday Night Football?

The battle of the birds actually projects as the second fastest of the week, according to FanDuel Research's Brandon Gdula. That pace is built into my totals model.

Even with that, it's hard to get this total up to 47.5. The Atlanta Falcons put up just 10 points in Kirk Cousins' debut. That came at home indoors, and now they'll be playing on the road in projected 8 mile-per-hour winds.

The Philadelphia Eagles hung 34 points in their opener, but they seemed to benefit from defenders struggling on a slick field down in Brazil. The offense slipped, too, but they know where they're going while defenders don't, giving the edge in those conditions to the offense.

I've got this total closer to 44, and we'd likely need contributions from both sides to get over 47.5. Even at -115, that makes the under desirable.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.