Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 2's Fastest Games

3mo

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Adjusted NFL Pace and Pass Rate Report: Ranking Week 2's Fastest Games

Pace and pass rate can tell us a lot about offensive tendencies for NFL teams.

Teams that are trailing will -- naturally -- be inclined both to play faster and throw more often than they may initially want to do.

Conversely, perhaps quick, pass-heavy teams are getting out to big leads and are then slowing things down in the fourth quarter and grinding clock.

These will affect raw outputs for team data, so I wanted to account for that when digging into team pace trends.

This season, I'll be posting pass rate over expectation numbers (as designated by nflfastR's live win models, which account for game situation) and adjusted pace numbers (my own methodology of anticipating expected pace based on numerous in-game factors).

Here are the fresh numbers for this week -- plus a ranking for each upcoming matchup.

NFL Pace and Pass Rate Over Expectation

This table shows pass and run plays per game, adjusted pace, pass rate plus pass rate over expectation, pass rate over expectation, and no-huddle rates that exclude two-minute drills.

Pass/Run Plays Only	Plays/G	Rank	Adj Pace	Rank	Pass% + PROE	Rank	Pass Rate OE	Rank	Non-2MD No Huddle%	Rank
PHI	73.0	4	27.2	1	45.4%	20	-2.6%	13	26.2%	3
DAL	59.0	15	28.3	2	59.2%	10	-0.1%	9	1.9%	23
HOU	74.0	1	28.6	3	43.7%	22	-4.9%	16	7.9%	18
PIT	66.0	9	28.6	4	25.9%	32	-12.0%	32	19.7%	6
NE	61.0	12	29.3	5	34.2%	30	-6.8%	22	0.0%	26
DET	61.0	12	29.4	6	40.9%	25	-8.3%	26	0.0%	26
CLE	70.0	5	29.6	7	73.8%	2	0.9%	7	24.2%	4

NFL Week 2 Pace and Pass Rate Preview

Here's a look at this week's games in terms of average pace and pass rate (plus pass rate over expectation). The table is initially sorted by average offensive pace, so the higher the game, the faster it should be -- and the more plays we should anticipate.

Matchup Averages	Pace	Rank	Pass% + PROE	Rank	Away Pace	Home Pace	Away Pass%+	Home Pass%+
CHI@HOU	29.2	1	53.5%	7	29.8	28.6	63.2%	43.7%
ATL@PHI	29.3	2	44.4%	13	31.4	27.2	43.5%	45.4%
NO@DAL	29.6	3	45.3%	12	30.9	28.3	31.3%	59.2%
TB@DET	29.7	4	47.1%	10	30.1	29.4	53.3%	40.9%
PIT@DEN	29.8	5	44.1%	14	28.6	31.0	25.9%	62.2%
SEA@NE	29.8	6	38.0%	16	30.4	29.3	41.7%	34.2%
SF@MIN	30.2	7	43.4%	15	30.2	30.2	35.8%	51.0%

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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