One of the tough things with betting the NFL is deciding when is the right time to buy low on a team or a unit.

Clearly, we want to bet on regression in general. But sometimes, you have to buy low because things are legitimately on a downturn. When you bet on regression when something tangible has changed, you can feel like a true dummy.

I think we've got some good buy-low spots this week. I just have to hope the "dummy" part doesn't rear its ugly head.

Let's dig into where my NFL Week 12 spread and total predictions are showing value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds and see which bets I like most this week.

NFL Week 12 Betting Picks

49ers at Packers

49ers' Moneyline (+124)

(UPDATE: This was before Brock Purdy's shoulder injury led to his being ruled out. My model now has the Packers favored by 5.0 with Purdy and Nick Bosa out.)

Things look pretty grim for the defending NFC champions. The San Francisco 49ers are now +172 just to make the playoffs, according to FanDuel, and the offense looked disjointed last week.

I still think they're undervalued against the Green Bay Packers.

Despite all the issues for the 49ers, they're still eighth in numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings, sitting fifth through the air and ninth on the ground. Those numbers should, in theory, tick up now that Christian McCaffrey is back in the mix, as well.

This is also part continued skepticism of the Green Bay Packers. They still looked uneven offensively last week against the Chicago Bears and rank below the 49ers on both offense and defense in numberFire's metrics.

I've got the 49ers favored here, allowing me to take the plus money and hope their string of disappointing results ends.

Buccaneers at Giants

Buccaneers -5.5 (-118)

This is both a buy-low spot for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and a sell-low spot for the New York Giants.

I want to be on the Buccaneers with Mike Evans seemingly trending toward a return this week. Even in three games without Evans, Baker Mayfield averaged 0.16 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. That's well above league average. He was at 0.28 before Evans' injury, so even with Chris Godwin out of the equation, I'm expecting this offense to hum.

The same cannot be said about the Giants. They're starting Tommy DeVito at quarterback now. DeVito averaged -0.16 Passing NEP per drop back last year, a far worse mark than Daniel Jones -0.05 this year before his benching. DeVito didn't have Malik Nabers then, so it's a better situation for him, but this is a downgrade for the offense.

As a result, I've got the Bucs favored by more than a touchdown. Teams favored by roughly the same amount as the Bucs in my model have covered a 5.5-point spread 61.9% of the time, so I'm comfortable laying the points.

Cowboys at Commanders

Commanders' Alt Team Total Over 30.5 (+142)

The Washington Commanders' offense has hit a speed bump of late, averaging just 22.5 points per game across their past 4. It could inspire fears that Jayden Daniels has hit the dreaded rookie wall.

Instead, I think they've just faced some tough opponents.

Here's where the defenses the Commanders have faced over that time sit in numberFire's schedule-adjusted defensive rankings: 8th, 17th, 3rd, and 5th. When they faced the Giants -- the 17th-ranked team -- the Commanders put up 27 points, a mark they also hit against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Crucially, both those games occurred after Daniels' rib injury, so I don't think that's fully to blame, either.

According to my numbers, the Commanders' offense has out-performed expectations while passing on early downs in six straight games, backing up the theory that they're still playing good football. That's why they're still numberFire's third-ranked offense.

This week, they face a Dallas Cowboys team that is getting torched. They've let up 27-plus points in each game since their bye and 30-plus points in half their games for the season. Even with Micah Parsons back, they've let up 34 in each of the past two.

That's why I like the alt market here. The Commanders' baseline team total over 27.5 at -112 is also fine as you get a win on a key number of 28. I just don't mind swinging for the fences in what should be a get-right spot for the team.

Chiefs at Panthers

Total Over 43.5 (-105)

This total has climbed two points since Tuesday, but I still think there's plenty of value in the over.

My model has this total closer to 47 than 44. It's up there primarily due to the Kansas City Chiefs, obviously. Patrick Mahomes has averaged 0.24 Passing NEP per drop back since DeAndre Hopkins' arrival, up from 0.07 before then.

When you add in Isiah Pacheco with his return likely, the Chiefs should be efficient even if they're grinding clock late.

That could push us to take the same path we did with the Commanders to bet the Chiefs' team total, but I don't hate having some exposure to the Carolina Panthers. Bryce Young had some decent moments before their bye, and he seems to be developing a rapport with Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker.

We shouldn't need a ton out of the Panthers to push this total over, so I'm fine including them in the mix and betting the full-game total.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.