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NFL Week 12 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game

Jim Sannes
Jim Sannes@JimSannes

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NFL Week 12 Spread and Total Predictions for Every Game

In the NFL, you're never lacking in prediction models to try to give you an idea of what to expect in a given week, whether those models are for betting or other purposes.

Below, we're going to run through what my spread and total models say about Week 12's NFL games.

As a disclaimer, this is my own, personal betting model. I'll lay out which bets I'm willing to make based on it compared to FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds, but as always, you'll have to decide for yourself whether there's enough value for you to the plunge, as well.

The spread model is largely based on numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) model, which is their version of EPA. The totals model factors in things such as pace and wind speed, as well. Numbers are manually edited to reflect the players who are expected to play in a given game.

Without further ado, here's what I've got for this upcoming slate of games.

NFL Week 12 Predictions

Steelers at Browns

Spread Prediction: Steelers -4.2

Total Prediction: 40.2

Betting Odds

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 22 1:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Thoughts: There are 12 mph winds in Cleveland, but I do think this total should be higher. The Pittsburgh Steelers' offense has been efficient with Russell Wilson, and Jameis Winston -- for multiple reasons -- is conducive to overs.

Vikings at Bears

Spread Prediction: Vikings -5.2

Total Prediction: 40.9

Betting Odds

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Lions at Colts

Spread Prediction: Lions -10.8

Total Prediction: 51.8

Betting Odds

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Patriots at Dolphins

Spread Prediction: Dolphins -8.5

Total Prediction: 47.9

Betting Odds

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Thoughts: Drake Maye has been good enough where I don't want to bet the Miami Dolphins despite showing some value.

Buccaneers at Giants

Spread Prediction: Buccaneers -8.3

Total Prediction: 45.0

Betting Odds

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Thoughts: This is assuming Mike Evans as in for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. My numbers view Tommy DeVito as a significant downgrade, thus explaining the gap between me and the market.

Cowboys at Commanders

Spread Prediction: Commanders -14.6

Total Prediction: 51.0

Betting Odds

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Thoughts: Similar to the Detroit Lions last week, this feels like a great spot to snag the Washington Commanders' team total rather than either traditional market. I think alt markets are firmly in play, as well.

Commanders Alternate Total
Over (27.5)
Over (28.5)
Over (29.5)
Over (30.5)

Chiefs at Panthers

Spread Prediction: Chiefs -11.6

Total Prediction: 47.5

Betting Odds

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Thoughts: The Kansas City Chiefs' offense has been efficient with DeAndre Hopkins and now likely gets Isiah Pacheco back. I think they'll be able to do damage, pushing me to agree with the model in liking the over.

Titans at Texans

Spread Prediction: Texans -10.1

Total Prediction: 43.4

Betting Odds

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 24 6:00pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Broncos at Raiders

Spread Prediction: Broncos -6.2

Total Prediction: 39.5

Betting Odds

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 24 9:05pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

49ers at Packers

Spread Prediction: 49ers -1.5

Total Prediction: 47.3

Betting Odds

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 24 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Thoughts: I'll probably quit the San Francisco 49ers eventually; it's probably just not gonna be this week. Currently projecting George Kittle as in after two limited practices last week.

Cardinals at Seahawks

Spread Prediction: Cardinals -2.4

Total Prediction: 46.7

Betting Odds

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 24 9:25pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Thoughts: The Seattle Seahawks' defense looked significantly better out of the bye, so maybe they've righted the ship, which would mean my model is too low on them here. Still am comfortable backing the Arizona Cardinals at their current odds.

Eagles at Rams

Spread Prediction: Eagles -0.1

Total Prediction: 46.4

Betting Odds

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 25 1:20am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Ravens at Chargers

Spread Prediction: Ravens -5.6

Total Prediction: 51.6

Betting Odds

Moneyline

Spread

Total Match Points

Nov 26 1:15am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.

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