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3 NHL Best Bets for Saturday 10/19/24

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3 NHL Best Bets for Saturday 10/19/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Edmonton Oilers vs. Dallas Stars

Oilers Moneyline (+106)

Moneyline

Oct 19 8:10pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

A rematch of last season’s Western Conference is on tap Saturday, with the Dallas Stars hosting the Edmonton Oilers. Dallas will be looking to avenge its unceremonious playoff exit, but unfortunately, the metrics point toward a different outcome.

The Stars shot out to one of the hottest starts of the season. They won their first four games, relying on their typically resounding defense while shutting out two of their opponents. However, much of their early-season success is founded on unsustainable metrics. Dallas was outplayed in three of five, yielding a 45.4% expected goals-for rating, seventh-worst in the NHL.

Conversely, Edmonton is positioned on an upward analytics trajectory. Despite posting a 57.3% expected goals-for rating through their first three games of the year, the reigning Western Conference Champions dropped all three decisions. The Oilers have continued to flex their analytics muscles, outplaying four of their first five opponents. Still, they are over 17.0% below their expected rating, implying further progression is anticipated.

The betting price is not an accurate representation of which team should be favored in this Western Conference Finals rematch. The Oilers have been the superior team all season and more wins are on the horizon. Dallas’ loss in its most recent outing is a sign of things to come. Oilers moneyline is an advantageous play.

Carolina Hurricanes vs. St. Louis Blues

60 Minute Tie (+350)

60 Min Moneyline (3 Way)
Tie

The Carolina Hurricanes are up to their usual disruptive shenanigans. Perennially an analytics powerhouse, the Canes have out-classed all three of their opponents to open the campaign. Still, playing on consecutive nights puts them at a disadvantage against a defensively responsible St. Louis Blues squad. As such, this one could take longer than 60 minutes to determine a winner.

Much of the Blues’ success relies on their ability to neutralize their opponents’ offense. Unsurprisingly, they’ve been better at sticking to those systems on home ice. In two home games this year, opponents are averaging 8.5 high-danger chances per game compared to 14.0 on the road. That correlates with fewer goals against. St. Louis has given up one goal at five-on-five in their friendly confines, seven fewer than as the visitors.

Playing defensive hockey is the Hurricanes’ specialty. Carolina finished last season among the league leaders in every defensive category, and the Canes have maintained that standard early in 2024-25. Through three games, they are giving up an average of 7.7 high-danger and 19.0 scoring chances. That standard’s unlikely to change against an offensive inferior squad like the Blues.

Chances will be at a premium, and as a result, scoring will be minimal. The cautious approach would involve making a play on the under, but there may be a more enticing entry point. Based on the anticipated game script, there’s value in backing this one to go to overtime.

Buffalo Sabres vs. Chicago Blackhawks

Under 5.5 (+110)

Total Goals

Under
Oct 20 12:10am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Considering their penchant for underachieving, the Chicago Blackhawks and Buffalo Sabres may eventually acquire enough draft capital to make this a premier matchup. For now, they feature two lackluster offenses that will have a hard time sending this interconference matchup over the total.

The Blackhawks are still going through growing pains in their Connor Bedard era. The Original Six franchise has been held to eight or fewer high-danger chances in four straight games, resulting in diminished scoring. Chicago has recorded just five goals at five-on-five over the four-game sample with only one of those games going over the total.

Limited output isn’t unique to the Hawks, though. Buffalo has run hot over its recent sample but was held to just three goals (two at five-on-five) through its first three outings. Although they’ve reversed course over their past three, the Sabres are also overheating. Their five-on-five shooting percentage has skyrocketed to 17.6% across their more recent sample, settling on an equally unsustainable number. Expect their production to come down in the short term, landing somewhere between those polar opposites.

The betting market is teetering on moving this total up to 6, and cautious bettors may want to hold tight for a more optimal number. Nevertheless, there’s still an edge in betting this one to stay below six total goals on Saturday night.


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