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3 NHL Best Bets for Monday 10/14/24

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3 NHL Best Bets for Monday 10/14/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

Los Angeles Kings vs. Ottawa Senators

Kings Moneyline -104

Moneyline

Oct 14 5:10pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

The Los Angeles Kings continue their seven-game road trip to open the year with an inter-conference showdown against the Ottawa Senators on Monday. The Kings were dealt a 2-1 overtime loss at the hands of the Boston Bruins last time out, but we like their chances to get back on the winning track against the Sens.

Despite playing on the road, the Kings have put forth a pair of solid efforts, the best of which came in their most recent outing. LA held the Bruins to a minuscule two high-danger chances at five-on-five. Further, they out-chanced the Eastern Conference foes in shots, scoring and high-danger chances while posting a 52.1% Corsi rating. That’s become the hallmark of their analytics success, with the Pacific Division contenders finishing with positive relative metrics across the board last season.

The Senators can’t boast about the same analytics superiority. Ottawa has been out-chanced in scoring and high-danger chances in each of their first two games. As expected, limited production has had a negative impact on output. Through two games, the Sens have totaled four goals, only two of which have come at five-on-five.

Ottawa’s ineffectiveness on offense plays into the strengths of the Kings. The betting market has installed the hosts as short favorites, but our analysis supports they’re undeserving of that distinction. As a result, there’s an implied advantage in backing the underdogs on Monday night.

Pittsburgh Penguins vs. Montreal Canadiens

Over 6.5 -104

Total Goals

Over
Oct 14 11:40pm UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

Clearly, Martin St. Louis has his Montreal Canadiens players ready and able to score at will. The Habs have totaled nine goals through the first three games of the season, with six of those coming at five-on-five. Still, that doesn’t absolve them of their defensive concerns, a weakness the Pittsburgh Penguins will exploit at the Bell Centre.

Montreal’s systems are working superbly to open the season. The Canadiens are maximizing scoring from high-output spots, recording four high-danger goals at five-on-five. That translates to a 25.0% high-danger shooting percentage, which is the sixth-best in the NHL. Moreover, it’s a strength the Penguins can’t defend. Pittsburgh goaltenders have combined for an 82.6% high-danger save percentage, ranking 16th in the league.

Thankfully, the Pens still possess the offensive firepower to hang with the Habs. Sidney Crosby and company have totaled eight goals to open the campaign, recording 12 high-danger chances in two of those three outings. However, goaltending has let the Penguins down, putting together the seventh-worst save percentage at five-on-five and the 12th-worst across all strengths.

Goals will come naturally when these teams meet on Monday night. The Penguins and Canadiens operate efficient offenses, and neither possesses top-end goaltending to limit the other. While the betting market has taken a stance on a low-scoring game, that creates some value on the over.

New York Islanders vs. Colorado Avalanche

Avalanche Moneyline -164

Moneyline

Colorado Avalanche
Oct 15 1:10am UTCMore odds in Sportsbook

It will be a homecoming of sorts when the Colorado Avalanche welcome the New York Islanders to Ball Arena. Patrick Roy revisits his former stomping grounds, where he led the Avalanche to two Stanley Cups. That shouldn't prevent the Avs from bouncing back.

The outcomes don’t reflect it, but the Avalanche have been a force to start the season. Colorado has outplayed its opponents by a substantive margin but has been on the losing end of two tough-luck losses. In total, they’ve posted a 58.7% expected goals-for rating, vastly underachieving relative to that benchmark. Their actual goals-for rating of 28.7% is less than half of what it should be, making the Avalanche natural progression candidates over their coming games.

Colorado’s ascent coincides with an anticipated decline from the Islanders. New York has been out-scored at five-on-five and tends to lose traction away from its friendly confines. Last season, the Isles finished in the bottom half of the league in expected goals-for rating, posting a disastrous 46.0 scoring chance and 46.7% shots-for ratings. Still, they overachieved relative to expected, posting a top ten actual goals-for rating as the visitors.

The Islanders struck an unsustainable balance last year, and they’ll pay for it early in 2024-25. This is an ideal buy-low opportunity on the Avs, as the betting market is losing faith in them after two underwhelming performances. That makes Monday night’s reunion with Roy a spot where we can consider buying in.


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