3 Best Player Prop Bets for Monday Night Football: Bills at Jets

Monday night brings an interesting divisional clash between the Buffalo Bills and New York Jets. The Bills are reeling on a two-game losing streak, and the Jets will play in their first game since the shocking move to fire coach Robert Saleh. This brings interesting angles to the betting market across the board. How will the coaching change impact New York's defense? Will it mean for success for the Bills' offense? What about the Jets' offense with Todd Downing taking over as the play-caller?

Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel. Here, we're going to focus on the former.

Using the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook as a guide, here are the best prop bets for this week's Monday night game.

All NFL projections via our numbers at FanDuel Research, and NFL odds references are to FanDuel Sportsbook. Lines may change after this article is published.

Player Prop Picks for Bills at Jets

Josh Allen Over 34.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

With the Bills' backfield beat up ahead of Monday's clash, Josh Allen's legs are intriguing.

James Cook is expected to go with a toe injury, but it wouldn't be surprising to see Buffalo keep his touches in check. Plus, backup running back Ray Davis has struggled to start his career with -0.65 rushing yards over expectation per carry (RYOE/C), via NFL's Next Gen Stats. Ty Johnson has pretty much taken over as the second-string back thanks to an absurd 1.82 RYOE/C. However, this has been in a very limited sample size of 10 rushing attempts. We haven't seen Johnson take more than three rushing attempts in one game.

Allen has a history of running all over New York. Over the last four head-to-head matchups, Allen has totaled 86, 47, 36, and 15 rushing yards. That's good for an average of 46.0 rushing yards per game. Buffalo's superstar quarterback is also logging 39.7 rushing yards per contest over his last three. For a team that attempts 27.8 carries per game (14th-most) paired with the 7th-highest rush play rate, someone has to run the rock.

I don't expect the Bills to go away from the run, either. The Jets' strength on defense has been defending the pass, giving up only 5.8 yards per passing attempt (second-fewest) and 136.6 passing yards per contest (the fewest) while ranking as the third-best schedule-adjusted pass defense. This defense is just good all around, but the run defense is a better avenue to success as the league's eighth-best adjusted unit while surrendering 4.2 yards per carry (eighth-fewest). New York also gives up 119.2 rushing yards per game (16th-fewest).

Additionally, Allen has the second-highest red zone rushing attempt share on the team. This only means more carries for Allen.

Breece Hall Any Time Touchdown Scorer (-110)

For any Breece Hall fantasy football managers out there -- me included -- I'm sorry for your struggle.

Even amid Hall's worrisome -0.05 RYOE/C, he's still taking the lion's share of the goal line touches. In fact, Hall carries a team-high 58.3% red zone carry share. Braelon Allen continues to push for more carries as he's forecasted for 45.2 rushing yards compared to Hall's 65.6 for tonight's game, per our DFS projections. However, Allen still has only a 16.7% red zone rushing attempt percentage.

Allen hasn't even had a red zone carry since Week 3. Meanwhile, Hall has taken 75.0% of the red zone rushing attempts during the span. He's in a good spot to record his third rushing touchdown tonight.

This goes beyond just Hall's red zone touches, though. It's admittedly hard to trust this Jets offense that's logging only 18.6 points per game (eighth-fewest). However, the Bills' rushing offense has been horrible as the league's fifth-worst adjusted run defense.

Buffalo is surrendering 5.2 rushing yards per carry (second-most) and 144.0 rushing yards per contest (seventh-most). I wouldn't be surprised to see New York lean on the run tonight, increasing Hall's chances of finding the end zone. With the fourth-lowest run play rate, we could also see this offense look much more balanced with a new play-caller.

Garrett Wilson Under 59.5 Receiving Yards (-110)

Along with Hall, Garrett Wilson has been a player severely underperforming. His -10.5% catch rate over expectation (CROE) and -23.4 receiving yards over expectation (RecYOE) per game doesn't bode much confidence.

However, we finally saw a spike game from Wilson a week ago. He logged 13 catches for 101 receiving yards and one touchdown on 23 targets (!). Getting this kind of target share (45.1% in Week 5) probably isn't sustainable, and his overall targets should go down in a game where keeping it on the ground is the best matchup.

While the Bills have struggled to defend the run, that hasn't been the case through the air. Buffalo is allowing 6.2 yards per passing attempt (fifth-fewest) and is the league's sixth-best adjusted pass defense. Adding to the concern, Wilson averaged only 21.5 receiving yards per game against the Bills in 2023. I don't have much faith in Aaron Rodgers, who holds -0.15 expected points added per dropback (EPA/db), against this pass defense either.

While it was nice to see Wilson's numbers jump last week, he will still very inefficient with a -13.7% CROE and -75.6 RecYOE. As we've mentioned, these numbers were mostly thanks to a ridiculous workload. He logged only 7.8 yards per catch and ranked third on the team with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 8.4 yards.

Our DFS projections have Wilson recording 56.6 receiving yards. Not only is this under his 59.5 yard prop, it holds an implied probability of 65.7% (or -192 odds) for the under. The matchup is there for Wilson to keep struggling, and we are getting terrific value with the under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.