3 MLB Best Bets, Player Props, and Home Run Picks for Monday 10/14/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to player props to home runs, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's MLB predictions and FanDuel Research's MLB projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets and Player Props

Mets at Dodgers

Under 8.5 Runs (-120)

It's always dicey to bet an under when Shohei Ohtani is involved and one team plans to throw a bullpen game. But 8.5 runs feels lofty here as the Los Angeles Dodgers host the New York Mets.

Thanks to Jack Flaherty's outing last night, the Dodgers' bullpen is fresh entering what should be a group affair. That 'pen has been lights in the postseason, posting a 2.05 ERA through 26.1 innings with an impressive 26.9% strikeout and 6.7% walk rate.

I do think Sean Manaea can uphold his end of the bargain, as well. Since he started to lean on his sinker more in early August, Manaea has allowed just a 34.1% hard-hit rate. He'll still let up some fly balls, but he has done a much better job of keeping those in the yard.

Finally, we've got some nice and cool temperatures in Los Angeles with first-pitch sitting at just 71 degrees. I think this all adds up to what could be a tight, low-scoring game.

Guardians at Yankees

Guardians' Moneyline (+136)

The New York Yankees deserve to be favored in Game 1, and my model views them as such. I just think the Cleveland Guardians are undervalued.

I've got the Guardians at 45.0% to win the opener, up from 42.4% implied. They get there thanks in large part to an elite bullpen, which leads all bullpens in SIERA during the playoffs at 2.96.

Their offense has also crushed lefties this year. Their active roster had a 123 wRC+ versus southpaws in the regular season, tied for the best mark in baseball.

Finally, Alex Cobb may not be great, but he is the archetype of pitcher you want at Yankee Stadium. He keeps the ball on the ground, letting up just a 22.6% fly-ball rate since the start of last year. The hope is he can hold down the fort long enough until they turn things over to that nasty bullpen, which is ideally recharged after an off day Sunday.

Today's Best Home Run Prop Bets

Jose Ramirez to Hit a Home Run (+360)

As mentioned before, the Guardians have crushed lefties this year. Jose Ramirez has obviously been a big part of that.

In 179 regular-season plate appearances against lefties, Ramirez posted a .348 ISO with a 45.6% fly-ball rate. He wound up hitting 14 homers, giving him a long ball in 7.8% of his plate appearances, a healthy bit higher than his 5.0% mark against righties.

Today, he'll face Carlos Rodon, who has shown improvements but still will let up the long ball. He has a 51.0% fly-ball rate allowed in 14 starts since effectively ditching his cutter. He's throwing almost exclusively his four-seamer and slider, and he has let up a 50.6% hard-hit rate on that four-seamer this year, per Baseball Savant.

With temperatures in the 50s at first pitch, we do need to keep offensive expectations in check. I still think Ramirez is a value despite that due to his skill and a fly-ball-heavy matchup.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.