3 NHL Best Bets for Friday 11/1/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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New Jersey Devils vs. Calgary Flames
Devils Moneyline -172
Moneyline
The Calgary Flames regression cycle continues on Friday night. After opening the season on a 5-0-1 tear, the Flames have come back down to earth by losing their last four games. Unfortunately, that streak will extend at least one more game as they appear out-matched against the surging New Jersey Devils.
Calgary’s recent play has been sub-optimal. The Flames have been outplayed in three of their past five, posting a lackluster 40.3% expected goals-for rating. While they still play with speed, the Flames have been unable to use that to their advantage. They’ve been held to seven or fewer high-danger chances in every one of those outings, averaging a paltry 5.4 per game. Ineffective offensive play will make keeping pace with the high-octane Devils impossible.
New Jersey failed to live up to expectations last season, but they are making amends for it early in 2024-25. The Devils rank second in scoring chances and third in high-danger opportunities, contributing to one of the best expected goals-for ratings in the league. Heading into Friday’s inter-conference affair, the Devils have put together a 52.5% rate, 11th-best in the NHL. However, New Jersey has leveled up over its more recent schedule. The Devils have outplayed their opponents in four straight, precipitating a 63.0% expected goals-for rating.
As expected, offensive play has hoisted the Devils to this new standard. New Jersey is up to 10.8 high-danger chances per game, yielding a pronounced advantage over its hosts on Friday night. This betting price doesn’t reflect the Devils' advantage, and they should have no problems escaping Calgary with the win.
Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Minnesota Wild
Lightning Moneyline -110
Moneyline
Tonight’s tilt against the Tampa Bay Lightning is shaping up as a flat spot for the Minnesota Wild. The Central Division contenders return home after a wildly successful road trip in which they went 5-1-1. However, we started to see a deterioration in Minnesota’s metrics toward the end of that run. Now that they’re settled into the comforts of home, we expect the Wild to underperform relative to their betting price.
Two words summarize the Wild’s recent hot streak – impressive and unsustainable. By the end of the trip, Minnesota had been outplayed in five of seven outings, resulting in a 48.1% expected goals-for rating. Conversely, their actual goals-for rating was 63.0%, putting the Wild on a collision course with regression.
Most notably, Minnesota vastly overachieved relative to its offensive production. The Wild recorded 19 goals over their last four games, 14 of which came at five-on-five. In doing so, they’ve elevated their shooting percentage while outside the normal range, bumping it to 17.5% at five-on-five and 17.9% across all strengths. Last season, the Wild finished with 8.9% and 10.0% benchmarks. That points Minnesota in a decidedly downward trajectory.
The Lightning are getting by just fine in the post-Steven Stamkos era. So far this season, the Bolts have posted a 50.5% expected goals-for percentage, surpassing last year’s rating of 49.0%. With 27 high-danger chances over their previous two contests, the Lightning should have no problem skating past the Wild as short road underdogs.
Ottawa Senators vs. New York Rangers
Senators Moneyline +158
Moneyline
The New York Rangers have the skill players to offset some of their analytic shortcomings. But that still doesn’t rationalize their betting price against the Ottawa Senators on Friday night. The Sens are operating at peak offensive efficiency lately, and we expect that to hold up against a defensively irresponsible Rangers side.
Coming into Friday’s Eastern Conference affair, the Sens have tallied 25 goals across their last five games. Five-on-five scoring is driving Ottawa’s surge. All but ten of those 25 goals have come at five-on-five, including 12 over their past three. The Sens are undoubtedly operating outside their expected range, but some of this progress was anticipated. Ottawa has finished below its expected goals-for total for three straight years, operating at a -37 deficit. This level of output isn’t anticipated in the long term, but don’t be surprised if the Sens outperform their expected levels this season.
They’ll have an opportunity to continue that onslaught against a Rangers side that has struggled in their own end. New York has given up at least 11 high-danger chances in four of its past six, getting out-chanced in all but two outings. That increased workload is starting to erode their goaltending metrics. Rangers’ goalies have allowed nine goals over their past three games, bringing their save percentage closer to expected levels.
Ottawa’s offensive resurgence comes when the Rangers are struggling to prevent chances and scoring. Those waves collide with the Senators, who are priced as steep +156 underdogs at Madison Square Garden, leaving an advantage in backing the visitors in this one.
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