3 Best NFL Player Prop Bets for Week 9
Player props can be useful in a variety of ways -- from taking advantage of them straight up in the betting market via the NFL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook to measuring a player's potential to produce in NFL DFS on FanDuel.
Here, we're going to focus on the former.
Utilizing our NFL projections -- which are powered by numberFire -- as a guide, here are some NFL player props that look appealing for this week.
All NFL odds come from FanDuel Sportsbook and may change after this article is published.
NFL Prop Picks for Week 9
Courtland Sutton Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
The Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens will meet up this weekend for a game that's showing a 46.5 over/under and favors Baltimore by 8.5 points.
Courtland Sutton has earned a 22.8% target share, 37.6% air yards share, 34.4% red zone target share and 53.9% end zone target share this season, so I want in on him as he goes up against a Baltimore team that struggles with numberFire's third-worst schedule-adjusted pass defense.
The Ravens are letting up the third-most targets and receiving yards to opposing wide receivers. As heavy underdogs, the Broncos will likely look to stay in the game via the pass. This hasn't happened much as of late, as Denver has won four of their last six games by 14 to 23 points. Heavy Denver leads have at times kept Sutton out of the game script, but it should be all systems go for him this weekend.
To add, Sutton is logging 4.5 downfield targets per game and Bo Nix has shown a willingness to chuck it. With that, I'm interested in getting in on the alt market.
Sutton's receiving prop has stayed pat since yesterday, though his odds in the alt market have shortened. Even still, I want to give him some consideration at these alternate lines considering he's a boom-or-bust play this Sunday.
Nick Chubb Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
Nick Chubb is back, and I like him to put on a clinic this weekend.
He was limited to just 11 rush attempts in his first game back with the Cleveland Browns but handled 16 carries for 52 yards last Sunday. Chubb has said that he's getting more comfortable with each passing week and is "seeing everything better." Considering he's already got a full workload under his belt with those 16 carries from a week again, he could explode if we start to see that Chubb-like efficiency come into play.
The Los Angeles Chargers aren't a perfect matchup, but they are surrendering 4.65 yards per carry to opposing backs, the 10th-most in the league. It helps to have Jameis Winston in the fold, too. Winston shined in the passing game last week and the deep-ball threat could open up more running lanes for Chubb.
Our NFL projections love Chubb in this spot. They expect him to handle a little over 16 carries for a massive 85 yards. While I maybe wouldn't go that far, Chubb to post 70+ rushing yards at +160 is an intriguing alt line to consider.
Brock Bowers Anytime Touchdown (+230)
There are a couple touchdown regression candidates that I'm interested in this weekend, including Zay Flowers Anytime Touchdown (+155) and Tyreek Hill Anytime Touchdown (+135).
Brock Bowers, however, might be more due than anyone, so let's explore his outlook in this week's game versus the Cincinnati Bengals.
Bowers is earning a 24.4% target share and 23.3% red zone target share this season. In five games without Davante Adams, he's enjoying a gaudy 27.7% target share and 30.0% red zone target share.
His market shares are awesome and the case for scoring regression is strong. Bowers has logged 65 targets this season, the sixth-most in the NFL. Despite that, he's reached the end zone just once. For context, players who have drawn 59-plus targets this year are averaging 3.46 touchdowns on the season. Bowers' league-low 1.5% touchdown rate can't hold up for much longer.
On top of all that, the Bengals figure to be a smooth matchup. They enter Week 9 with our 21st-ranked schedule-adjusted pass defense. They're also allowing the 11th-most targets, 8th-most yards, and 5th-most touchdowns per game to opposing tight ends.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.