UFC Edmonton Best Bets: Moreno vs. Albazi

If you crave violence, artistry, and competition in its purest form, the Ultimate Fighting Championship might be for you.

Colloquially known as "UFC," the world's largest mixed martial arts promotion holds around a dozen MMA fights a vast majority of weekends throughout the year. The promotion has fathered some of the largest combat-sport stars of the 21st century, including Conor McGregor, Khabib Nurmagomedov, and Jon Jones.

There are plenty of ways to get in on the action every Saturday. FanDuel Sportsbook provides MMA odds including moneylines, round totals, and prop bets for each fight.

Without further delay, here are a few best bets from UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi, taking place at the Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta (Canada) on Saturday.

UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi Betting Picks

Alexandr Romanov vs. Rodrigo Nascimento

Romanov to Win (-105)
Romanov by Points (+430)

Betting on a fighter's "shape" is the hardest forecast in sports betting, but I've got to trust a bit of conditioning with this line for Alexandr Romanov.

"King Kong" has had an inconsistent run through UFC with six wins -- most in dominant fashion and three losses to ranked fighters. His last, a submission loss to Jailton Almeida (7-1 UFC) in 147 seconds, was perhaps the most embarrassing. When he's on against lesser competition, he dominates with 4.17 takedowns and 0.8 submission attempts per 15 minutes.

I've got to take the plunge at this number outside the rankings against Rodrigo Nascimento.

Nascimento's -0.57 striking success rate (SSR) is walloped by Romanov's +1.80 SSR, and I don't trust his 43% striking D off a knockout loss to Derrick Lewis, denting what had been decent durability to that stage. Romanov might not find wrestling success here, but he's shown he can win on the feet with 74 distance strikes against Blagoy Ivanov two fights ago.

I've modeled Romanov 64.0% likely to win this fight, and 48.0% of the time, he wins by decision. Many are scared of Romanov's prospective conditioning, but his losses in "poor condition" also came inside the top eight of the rankings. I see that as white noise.

Ariane da Silva vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius

da Silva to Win (+184)

Jasmine Jasudavicius is the Canadian on this card in Alberta, so she's understandably getting some love in betting markets. This is probably way too much, though.

Jasudavicius' 6-2 UFC record has come through some close bouts. As a grappler landing a solid 2.39 takedowns per 15 minutes, she's also faced three professional strawweights (115) at 125 pounds and been able to impose her will. I'm just not sure she'll be able to do that to natural flyweight Ariane da Silva on Saturday.

da Silva's UFC tenure skyrocketed after a stint at Amanda Nunes' gym has now turned into a spot at Kings MMA with former lightweight champion Rafael dos Anjos. She's won three of her last four bouts and arguably saw her stock rise as the first fighter to extend Karine Silva (4-0 UFC) the entire distance despite a loss.

Most of all, "The Queen of Violence" has a 71% takedown defense, and she's stuffed 22 of the last 27 takedown attempts she's faced. If she can keep Jasudavicius' -0.06 SSR at range, this fight should be hers.

Though Jas' 3.26 projected takedowns make her a slight favorite in my model, I've got da Silva as 46.8% likely to win this fight (+114 implied), so this line definitely has too much home cooking.

Erin Blanchfield vs. Rose Namajunas

Blanchfield by Submission (+450)

Erin Blanchfield's moneyline was -126 on Sunday. It's now -138. If you missed the boat for a favorite at -130 in my model, I still think "Cold Blooded" is playable in this fashion.

Blanchfield has been done no favors by matchmakers in her last two bouts. The grappler, attempting 6.21 takedowns per 15 minutes, was assigned Taila Santos (86% takedown D) and Manon Fiorot (93%) in consecutive fights. Those are arguably her two worst matchups in the entire division. Rose Namajunas' 59% takedown defense should be a whole new world for her.

"Thug Rose" seems to have earned back the trust of bettors after a convincing win in Denver in June over Tracy Cortez, but that fight was on short notice for Cortez. It impacted her stylistically, attempting just 5 takedowns in 25 minutes. You can't wrestle at a high level if you're not in elite shape.

Namajunas is still just 3-2 in her last five -- all decisions -- without many notable moments or stats. I don't see the appeal of buying into her +0.32 SSR when Blanchfield's (+1.13) is better. Blanchfield submitted Jessica Andrade in the second round; Namajunas went 1-1 in her two fights with the former 115-pound champ.

I've got Blanchfield as 56.5% likely to win this fight (-130 implied). If you can't find a moneyline that shows value on those odds, I've got the favorite finding a patented submission 24.0% of the time, which is way better than these odds imply.

Brandon Moreno vs. Amir Albazi

Albazi to Win (+142)

I've been highly vocal about Brandon Moreno's decline at Fortis MMA. He's since left for Cobrinha BJJ in Las Vegas, which doesn't have another active UFC fighter on the roster.

Laying chalk with the most recent versions of Moreno seems insane. Though facing top-shelf competition, he was dropped and taken down six times by Alexandre Pantoja to lose his flyweight title, and Brandon Royval ran circles around "The Assassin Baby" in February, posting a +33 striking differential in his home country. Overall, Moreno's +0.24 SSR leaves a ton to be desired in a fight where Amir Albazi is likely the better grappler.

Albazi controlled Kai Kara-France for over six minutes in a highly controversial split-decision win in his last fight, which sort of tarnishes how elite his ground game was before a date with Kara-France's 88% takedown D. He had finished three of his first four UFC foes on the mat.

Moreno's 63% takedown defense isn't impenetrable, leading to some belief the younger Albazi could realize success in this spot.

I'm fairly mixed on Albazi's decision (21.3%), submission (13.6%), and knockout (12.5%) chances after having shown the versatility to win all three ways, but he's a great bet on the moneyline. Adding those together, I've modeled him 47.3% likely to win overall.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author’s advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.