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3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Monday 11/11/24

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3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Monday 11/11/24

Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.

For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.

Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.

NHL Betting Picks Today

Get inside the crease and access who is starting in tonight’s NHL matchups and save projections with SportsGrid’s Starting Goalies Page.

San Jose Sharks vs. Philadelphia Flyers

Sharks Moneyline +202

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This iteration of the Philadelphia Flyers shouldn’t be -255 favorites over anyone, even if the lowly San Jose Sharks are skating on the second night of a back-to-back.

Philadelphia is awful. So far this season, the Flyers have compiled the fourth-worst expected goals-for rating in the NHL. Sadly, it’s getting worse. Philadelphia has been outplayed in all but three games this season, yielding a 44.4% expected eGF; however, that number has taken a serious hit over the Flyers’ recent sample. They’ve posted a below-average mark in five of their past six, resulting in a 39.3% eGF. Four of those opponents have hit double-digit high-danger chances, and the Flyers have not outchanced their opponents in any of those contests.

While the Sharks are far from being considered a powerhouse, they have put their best foot forward lately. San Jose has kept three of its past four opponents to less than 10 high-danger chances. Not surprisingly, improved defensive efficiency correlates with an increased save percentage. Across the four-game sample, Sharks goalies have combined for a .941 save percentage.

The Flyers’ metrics don’t support increased scoring. With the Sharks playing well, we’re not anticipating an influx of Philadelphia goals on Monday night. We see a significant advantage in backing San Jose at the current offering.

Los Angeles Kings vs. Calgary Flames

Flames Moneyline +112

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It’s been a tough go for the Calgary Flames. With just two wins over their past nine games, the Flames are going through the learning curve that everyone thought they would this season. However, a recent uptick in their underlying metrics supports that they could emerge from Monday’s test against the Los Angeles Kings as victorious.

As is typically the case, the Flames are playing with tremendous defensive resolve. Calgary has limited its past eight opponents to nine or fewer high-danger chances for a tidy average of 6.5 per game. Combined with their recent uptick in offensive productivity, the Flames have tilted the ice in their direction. Calgary has recorded 12 high-danger chances in two of four, resulting in a 55.9% high-danger chance rating over that stretch. More importantly, that’s helped them outplay their opponents in all but two of their previous six.

LA remains a top analytics team, but they’ve hit a bit of a lull a month into the season. The Kings have been outplayed in consecutive outings by a substantive margin. They produced an atrocious 34.6% expected goals-for rating while combining for just 10 high-danger and 25 scoring chances across those outings.

The Kings’ offense is crumbling, and we don’t expect them to get back on track against a formidable Flames defense. Getting a piece of the Flames’ moneyline at plus money is enticing.

Nashville Predators vs. Colorado Avalanche

Avalanche Moneyline -154

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The Colorado Avalanche have looked out of sorts to open the season, so much so that the betting market has started to lose faith in the Avs. Colorado has seen a dramatic decline in its moneyline price over the past few weeks; however, that adjustment has come with the team still putting together a top-tier on-ice product. Consequently, they are the ideal buy-low candidate for Monday’s Central Division clash versus the Nashville Predators.

The Avs have turned a corner with their recent efforts. They’ve outplayed their opponents by a wide margin in consecutive games and posted above-average expected goals-for ratings in three of five. Predictably, that increase correlates with improved offensive production. Colorado has gone north of 10 high-danger chances in three of five while holding its opponents to less than nine quality opportunities in all but one of those games.

An offseason of change hasn’t yielded the positive outcomes the Preds hoped it would. Nashville has been outplayed in four straight, posting game scores below 40.0% in three of those contests. As expected, they have only one win to show for their efforts, a downward trajectory that carries them into a challenging matchup versus the Avalanche.

Colorado’s chances of winning vastly exceed the implied probability of their moneyline price. This line could move significantly higher as we approach puck drop, with all that movement validated by solid analytics.


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