3 NHL Best Bets and Predictions for Wednesday 11/13/24
Whether it's moneylines or total goals, there are plenty of ways to bet on the NHL action all season. It's a long 82-game campaign, meaning that the best selections of each night can be very different based on backup goalies coming into play, injuries that add up, and if teams are due for positive or negative swings.
For additional NHL insights, check out FanDuel Research's daily NHL projections, powered by numberFire.
Let's dive into the best bets for tonight.
Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All NHL betting odds and totals are from the NHL odds at FanDuel Sportsbook. All advanced statistics are used from MoneyPuck.com and NaturalStatTrick.com. Lineup notes come from Daily Faceoff.
NHL Betting Picks Today
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Detroit Red Wings vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Penguins Moneyline (-140)
Things can’t get any worse for the Pittsburgh Penguins. Off to a lackluster 6-9-2 start to the season, the Pens were humiliated 7-1 last time out against the Dallas Stars. That’s precipitated a massive shift in the betting odds, making Pittsburgh an ideal buy-low candidate against the Detroit Red Wings.
Analytically, the Penguins are still churning out solid results. They rank 11th in the league with a 51.4% expected goals-for rating, exceeding that benchmark in three of their past four outings. Across the more recent stretch, Pittsburgh has produced a 54.7% eGF rating while outplaying its opponents at both ends of the ice. Still, actual metrics don’t reflect their renewed analytics superiority.
Thankfully for Pens fans, the Red Wings don’t pose much of a threat. Detroit sits in the league's bottom half in nearly every advanced category, best encapsulated in its 24th-ranked 46.7% expected goals-for rating. Not surprisingly, the Red Wings have outplayed their opponents in only four games this season, a trend unlikely to change against a motivated Penguins side.
No team has underachieved more than the Penguins. Pittsburgh is nearly 13 points shy of its expected goals for rating, churning out an actual mark of 38.6%. Jobs and legacies are on the line now, and we expect them to bounce back with their most convincing effort of the season.
Vegas Golden Knights vs. Anaheim Ducks
Over 6.5 (+100)
High-scoring hockey games have been the Vegas Golden Knights’ calling card. The Pacific Division contenders can maintain that trend in Wednesday’s intra-divisional battle versus the better-than-advertised Anaheim Ducks.
The Ducks have been among the worst teams in the NHL over the past few seasons. Anaheim hasn’t had a winning record since 2017-18 and failed to extract maximum value from their offense. However, the Ducks are trending in the opposite direction over their recent sample. They’ve gone north of 14 high-danger chances in two of their past four and are on the verge of an offensive breakout. That could come against a Golden Knights team that has been one of the worst defending teams this season.
Through the season's first month, Vegas ranks as one of the worst defensive teams in the league. They give up an average of 9.5 high-danger chances per game, with their past four opponents all exceeding that benchmark. Still, porous defending hasn’t come at the expense of their high-octane offense. The Golden Knights are averaging 4.2 goals per game, with 2.9 coming at five-on-five.
Predictably, Vegas’ style of play lends itself to high-scoring games. The Golden Knights have gone north of the total in 12 of 15 to start the year and are poised to continue that trend in SoCal. Anaheim doesn’t possess the defensive structure to limit the Knights’ attack, but they have seen an uptick in production that should send this game over the total.
Los Angeles Kings vs. Colorado Avalanche
Kings Moneyline (+115)
Something is amiss with the Colorado Avalanche. The perennial contenders have fallen well short of their usual standard this season. Colorado is getting outplayed at both ends of the ice lately, which is profoundly impacting its analytics. That puts them at a significant disadvantage against a Los Angeles Kings squad that has cemented itself as a powerhouse and Stanley Cup contender.
LA is doing everything right, and that’s reflected in its metrics. So far this season, they’ve compiled the second-best expected goals-for rating in the league, accumulating a sterling 56.9% mark. However, they’ve exceeded that mark in four of their past six. The Kings have crossed the 60.0% plateau in all four outings, thanks to sustained defensive efforts. All six of those opponents have been held to nine or fewer high-danger chances for an average of 6.0 per game.
Based on their current form, the Avs won’t be able to break through the Kings’ seemingly impenetrable defense. Colorado has been held to six or fewer high-danger chances in four of its previous seven, which has negatively impacted scoring. At five-on-five, the Avs have been held to two goals or fewer in all but one of those contests, averaging just 1.3 goals per game.
While paying the chalky price to get a piece of the under may be tempting, the more advantageous position is backing the Kings to win outright. Los Angeles is the superior analytics team and should have no problem icing an already cold Avalanche side. We see an edge in backing the visitors in this one.
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