We've got some heavyweight battles on tap across the NFL this week.

Not only do we get our perpetual duel for AFC supremacy between the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs, but we also will see if Russell Wilson and the Pittsburgh Steelers are legit as they host the Baltimore Ravens.

I'm always content to sit out those fun games and just enjoy them as a fan. But I actually do see betting value in both matchups this week.

Let's start there, laying out where my model's NFL Week 11 spread and total predictions show value in FanDuel Sportsbook's NFL betting odds for the two banger matchups before diving into other bets I like this week.

NFL Week 11 Betting Picks

Ravens at Steelers Pick

Ravens -3 (-118)

The Steelers have been genuinely fun to watch this year, and I think their success thus far has been legit.

The Ravens are just a very difficult team to top, and they seem like a bad matchup for the Steelers.

The matchup concerns come specifically from the Ravens' defense. Although they've struggled to stop the pass, they rank third in numberFire's schedule-adjusted rush defense rankings. We know offensive coordinator Arthur Smith wants to run the football as the Steelers' early-down pass rate this year is just 42.0%, well below the league average of 51.7%.

That'll force them to air it out more, and while Russell Wilson has been efficient, most of that efficiency has come via the long ball. If the Ravens know that's the one way they can get beat, you'd hope they'd allocate extra resources to stopping it.

This hasn't worked for other defenses yet, so maybe the moonballs are just unstoppable. But I've got enough faith in them to be able to get the job done and cover what is a pretty substantial spread for a road divisional matchup against a quality team.

The question is whether you want to bet the Ravens -3 at -118 or -3.5 at +100.

I've got a sample of 69 instances where my model has had a team favored by roughly as much as the Ravens are here. This shows how often those teams have either covered 3.5 or pushed on 3.

Obviously, that's not gospel because it's just a 69-game sample from one person's model. But your expected ROI on laying the -3 at -118 is nearly identical to getting -3.5 at even money (it depends on the rounding of the return on the -118), so you can pick your preferred route there. Either way, I'm down to invest in Baltimore in what should be a fun game.

Chiefs at Bills Pick

Total Over 46.5 (-110)

If I'm gonna have action on this game, I want it to be via something that doesn't force me to root against either quarterback.

Lucky us that the total seems a hair too low.

My model has this total pushing 50 thanks to low wind speeds and two efficient offenses. In three games with DeAndre Hopkins, Patrick Mahomes is averaging 0.26 Passing Net Expected Points (NEP, numberFire's EPA metric) per drop back. That's up from 0.07 before the trade and would rank tied for second among all quarterbacks with at least 100 drop backs if it were his full-season number.

Josh Allen's full-season mark is identical to Mahomes with Hopkins, meaning these two offenses are back to firing on all cylinders.

I've currently got a small bump down for the Buffalo offense with Keon Coleman likely out and both Amari Cooper and Dalton Kincaid banged up. If neither Cooper nor Kincaid can go, that bump will be increased, which would hurt the odds this game gets to this total. But with my current total where it's at, we've got enough wiggle room to take it now and still feel good enough should things break against us.

Falcons at Broncos Pick

Falcons' Moneyline (+110)

These two teams had very different Week 10s. The Denver Broncos should have handed the Chiefs their first loss, and the Atlanta Falcons lost to a team that just fired its coach.

I think that's allowing us to buy the Falcons at a discount.

Even after accounting for Week 10, the Falcons have still been the much better offense this year. They rank 9th overall and 8th through the air by numberFire's metrics while the Broncos are 23rd and 24th, respectively.

Obviously, defense will favor the Broncos, but they get a tough assignment here. The Falcons are deep at pass-catcher, meaning they should still be able to move the ball even with Patrick Surtain II providing lock-down coverage. Additionally, they can move the ball on the ground, and Denver has been a bit more mortal there.

When you add it all together, my model has the Falcons favored, so I'm comfortable taking the plus money for them to get the win.

Raiders at Dolphins Pick

Total Under 44.5 (-115)

In general, my model is showing more value in overs this week after scoring was down a bit in Week 10.

This is the glaring exception as I'm well below this number.

There are a couple of factors at play here. First, neither the Miami Dolphins nor Las Vegas Raiders are particularly fast-paced, ranking 20th and 28th, respectively, in Brandon Gdula's adjusted pace numbers entering the week.

Second, current wind speed projections are at 12 mph, high enough to ding the total 1.24 points for me from where it would be if they were at 5 mph, for example.

Finally, I'm just not expecting much out of the Raiders' offense. They're dead last by numberFire's schedule-adjusted offensive rankings, and the Dolphins' defense is up to 12th after an impressive showing on Monday Night Football.

Add in the potential for the Dolphins to struggle on short rest following a cross-country flight while the Raiders are coming off a bye, and I've got this total at 40.55, leaving plenty of room toward the under.

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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.