3 NBA Star Player Prop Bets for Wednesday 1/31/24
Player props are a fun way to get involved with the NBA each night, especially when it comes to the game's elite players.
That's what we'll focus on here -- prop bets for the NBA's best players via FanDuel Sportsbook's NBA Star Player Props.
Using data -- including numberFire's daily basketball projections -- as a guide, here are some NBA player prop bets that look appealing via the NBA odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Please note lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published.
NBA Prop Picks
Kevin Durant Over 25.5 Points (-113)
The Phoenix Suns will take on the Brooklyn Nets for a nationally televised game on ABC.
After spending nearly three seasons with the Nets, Kevin Durant will return to Brooklyn for the first time, and there's no scorer I am higher on today than him.
This season, Durant is averaging 28.3 points per game and has eclipsed 25.5 points in 30 of his 40 games (75.0%). But we shouldn't get too in over our heads regarding the 75.0% hit rate at tonight's line. Bradley Beal and Devin Booker have been intermittently injured for much of this season, forcing Durant to take on a bigger offensive workload.
In 16 games alongside both Beal and Booker, Durant is averaging 25.2 points per contest. He's exceeded 25.5 points in half of those games, but we have many reasons to be bullish on KD tonight.
Durant and Booker are high-volume shooters who seem to pick their spots when playing with each other. Last week, Booker scored 40-plus points in three straight games. He averaged a mind-boggling 50.7 points per night in that span, and Durant seemed to have no issue taking a backseat. But the week before Booker's outburst, Durant had a pair of 40-plus-point performances, causing Booker to take on a smaller role.
Durant is now due for an outburst, and what better game to do just that than a nationally televised rivalry game?
Beyond the high shot volume that we should expect from Durant, we can find encouragement in this matchup.
The Nets are surrendering the ninth-most three-point attempts (3PA) to forwards. Durant nets 23.9% of his points from behind the arc and is shooting the three-ball at a stellar 45.2% clip (fourth-best in the NBA).
Durant can also make a killing at the foul line. He nets 20.2% of his points from the free-throw line and has taken at least nine free-throw attempts in 14 games this season. Brooklyn has been giving up the 12th-most free-throw attempts to forwards, so we could see Durant rack up points from behind the stripe.
Add in a 3.0-point spread that could see KD take over in the fourth quarter, and I'm happy siding with the over.
Victor Wembanyama Under 24.5 Points (-106)
Victor Wembanyama has been shining in his rookie season, but he's not clearing this 24.5-point magic number enough for me to justify anything but the under.
On the season, Wemby is averaging 20.6 points per game. He's eclipsed 24.5 points in just 10 of his 41 games. So even though the implied probability for the under stands at 51.46% (-106), Wemby is actually hitting tonight's under at a 75.6% clip.
Since he is a rookie, I don't want to ignore the fact that first-year players need time to acclimate to the league. Wemby has been growing as a player, meaning his early-season numbers may be a tad misleading.
But even if we narrow it down to Wemby's January numbers, he has still exceeded 24.5 points in just five of his 13 games, giving under 24.5 points a 61.5% hit rate this month.
Wemby and the San Antonio Spurs will go up against the Orlando Magic in what could prove to be a tough matchup.
The Magic hold the sixth-best defensive rating in the league and are sacrificing the eighth-fewest paint points over their last 10 games, which is where Wemby relies on scoring 48.9% of his points.
Orlando is also surrendering the fourth-fewest points and the fewest three-point makes (3PM) to centers, while Wembanyama is netting 21.7% of his points from downtown.
It's a difficult matchup and a high bar for Wemby to clear, so I'll side with the under.
Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 11.5 Rebounds (-132)
Giannis Antetokounmpo has grabbed over 11.5 rebounds in nine of his last 15 games, including four of his last five contests.
I think will see this trend stick in tonight's game between the Milwaukee Bucks and Portland Trail Blazers.
The Blazers are one of the worst teams in the league, and their rebounding skills are no exception.
Portland is allowing opposing teams to grab the seventh-most boards per game. They have the worst adjusted rebound chance percentage in the entire NBA and suffer with a league-worst effective field-goal percentage, so Giannis should have plenty of rebounding chances in this one.
Portland's terrible shooting markers are brought down by their abysmal interior shooting. They suffer with the worst team field goal percentage in both the restricted area and the paint. Giannis will be the biggest player down low when Portland misses these shots tonight.
These teams met up in November and Giannis finished the game with 16 boards. I think he is in a great spot for another big rebounding night.
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The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.