3 MLB Best Bets for Wednesday 8/28/24

Baseball has you covered if you want a large inventory of options to bet.

From moneylines to run totals to first-five-inning wagers, we have plenty of ways to bet the long, arduous MLB schedule daily. Outlooks can be vastly different due to starting pitchers, and a wealth of advanced stats can let us know if an individual pitcher, a bullpen, or a team is due for positive -- or negative -- regression.

Using numberFire's projections as a guide, which MLB odds from FanDuel Sportsbook are most appealing today?

Note: Lines are subject to change throughout the day after this article is published. All stats come from FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless noted otherwise. Please check here to make sure you're seeing the most updated projections.

Today's Best MLB Bets

Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies

Over 11.0 Total Runs (-105)

Tonight's Miami Marlins-Colorado Rockies clash at Coors Field has Wednesday's highest over/under, but the total still may not be high enough. The two sides combined for 17 runs in last night's game, substantially higher than tonight's 11-run over/under.

With two suspect pitchers scheduled to throw, this is a nice spot to back the over at the single best venue for hitting, per Statcast Park Factors.

Rookie right-hander Max Meyer (3-3, 5.44 ERA) will start for Miami, and he's struggled mightily since being recalled to the majors. Though he was effective at the beginning of the season, Meyer's pitched to a 7.36 ERA and 5.03 xFIP in six starts since being called back up at the end of July. He only has a 15.7% K% during that stretch, but opposing hitters have generated a 15% barrel rate and 51% hard-hit rate against him.

Not great, Bob!

The Rockies, meanwhile, have been strong against righties at home since the All-Star break. They rank 15th in wRC+ (106) and third in wOBA (.358). They're averaging 5.8 runs per game at home over the second half.

Yet, Colorado has also surrendered 5.6 runs per game at home during the second half. That's a trend that could continue tonight with Kyle Freeland (3-6, 5.70 ERA) on the bump. Freeland has pitched to a 4.32 xFIP while allowing a 10% barrel rate and 41.9% hard-hit rate on the year. The southpaw has given up 11 runs across his last three Coors starts.

The Marlins don't jump off the page offensively, but they've quietly been solid against lefties over the second half. Since the All-Star break, Miami ranks 14th in wRC+ (108) and 11th in wOBA (.327) versus LHP. In total, they're averaging 4.3 runs per game in the second half of the year.

After last night's 17-run thriller, an uninspiring pitching matchup again bodes well for the over tonight.

New York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks

Over 8.5 Total Runs (-122)

Chase Field may not be as strong of a hitter's park as Coors, but it's still a venue we can look to target for an over in tonight's New York Mets-Arizona Diamondbacks clash.

This is yet another pitching matchup we can target as it is Luis Severino (9-6, 3.84 ERA) taking on Eduardo Rodriguez (2-0, 3.94 ERA).

Severino has outperformed relative to his 4.31 xFIP, and his K% is under 20% for the second consecutive year. He's done a good job limiting hard contact and barrels, though Severino has notably struggled on the road. His ERA jumps to 4.63 away from Citi Field, and he's surrendered four-plus runs in two of his last three road starts.

That bodes well for a D-backs side that has mashed right-handed pitching this season. In that split, Arizona ranks seventh in wRC+ (112) and third in wOBA (.331). Their offense has really taken off over the second half as they're averaging 6.3 runs per game since the All-Star break.

The Mets' offense could find similar success against Rodriguez. E-Rod has pitched to a 4.25 xFIP in three starts this season, and his K% is at a measly 16.2%. His average fastball velocity is down to 91.5 MPH this season, and he's given up 12 hits across his last two starts despite facing a pair of suspect offenses in Colorado and Miami.

New York should be salivating at the chance to face E-Rod given their stellar left-handed splits. Against lefties this season, the Mets rank second in wRC+ (117) and third in wOBA (.332).

numberFire projects a final score of 5.8-5.4 in favor of New York. While that inspires some confidence in Mets moneyline (+102), it more favorably projects this game to go over 8.5 runs.

Baltimore Orioles at Los Angeles Dodgers

Orioles Moneyline (-106)

We'll close things out with a straight moneyline wager as I like the Baltimore Orioles to take down the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road.

Though both offenses are strong in this game, this is a seriously lopsided pitching matchup with Corbin Burnes (12-6, 3.28 ERA) up against Walker Buehler (1-4, 6.09).

Burnes hasn't been as dominant as he was with the Milwaukee Brewers, with his K% (22.5%) and Stuff+ (117) down from 2023. But he's made up for that with a tick up in ground-ball rate (47.9%) while maintaining his usual stellar quality-of-contact numbers (6.3% barrel rate; 32% hard-hit rate). That's helped Baltimore win in 17 of his 26 starts.

Buehler, meanwhile, has looked like a shell of the guy who finished fourth in Cy Young voting three years ago. He owns a 4.72 xFIP and 16.9% K% on the season, all while giving up a 38.2% hard-hit rate. The righty hasn't had much better luck since returning from a lengthy IL stint, giving up seven total runs across his last 7 1/3 innings.

Baltimore and LA are third and fourth in wRC+ against righties this season, so it won't be an easy road for either pitcher. But the Dodgers have dropped to 10th in that split since the All-Star break, and they have a much more difficult matchup than the Orioles do.

In a matchup between two of the best teams in baseball, I'll side with the better pitcher and back the Burnes-led Orioles to win straight up.

New to FanDuel Sportsbook? You’ll receive $200 in Bonus Bets guaranteed after your first bet of $5+ is placed! See here for full terms and conditions. Learn about today’s other offers at FanDuel Sportsbook Promos.

Looking for more MLB betting opportunities? Check out all of the MLB odds at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Sign up for FanDuel Sportsbook and FanDuel Daily Fantasy today!

The above author is a FanDuel employee and is not eligible to compete in public daily fantasy contests or place sports betting wagers on FanDuel. The advice provided by the author does not necessarily represent the views of FanDuel. Taking the author's advice will not guarantee a successful outcome. You should use your own judgment when participating in daily fantasy contests or placing sports wagers.